2017-2018 NBA season predictions

Well, that was, by far, the most eventful offseason in recent NBA history. First, the Celtics traded the top pick in the 2017 NBA draft to the Sixers. Then D’Angelo Russell and Timofey Mozgov’s ridiculous contract were traded to the Nets for Brook Lopez and the 27th pick in the draft. (This trade was particularly significant since it opened the way for the Lakers to draft Lonzo Ball, aaaaaaaaannnnnd, to offload Mozgov’s contract for next year’s free agency season, when a certain King of Passive Aggression from Akron, OH will become a free agent.) Jimmy Butler was traded to the Timberwolves. And then Chris Paul, Paul George and Avery Bradley were traded. But the whopper of them all was Kyrie Irving’s polite request for a trade after going to three straight NBA Finals with LeBron and the Cavs. The 2017 NBA Finals concluded in Oakland (yeah!) on June 12th, and I was absolutely rapt by the NBA’s offseason until late August when Kyrie was traded to the Celtics for Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, some chump and the Celtics coveted unprotected 2018 Brooklyn Nets pick. Goddamn, man. The NBA won the offseason!

But sweet baby Jesus, we’re finally here. The 2017-2018 NBA regular season kicks off with the juiciest opener I can remember: Kyrie returning to Cleveland with his new team. If it were a pay-per-view event, I would fork over good money to see Irving square off against LeBron and his former teammates. Man, I can’t wait.

For once, I wanted to put down some of my predictions for this coming season. Without further ado, here are my predictions for the playoff teams in each conference:


Western Conference



1. Golden State

Like Zach Lowe and Tim Bontemps from the Washington Post, I think the Warriors are going to win 70 games again. Last season, they coasted to 67 wins; KD was out for nearly six weeks. They’re returning 12 of their 15 players from last season. They’ve worked out all the major chemistry kinks from adding Durant last season, and they managed to upgrade on the 3 players they let go. I know a lot of people think the Thunder won the offseason with the Melo trade, but I think the Warriors won the offseason by retaining their championship core and adding Nick Young, Omri Casspi and Jordan Bell to infuse some welcome change to their team. With a great season capped by another championship, this Warriors squad would undoubtedly become absolute gods amongst the greatest NBA teams ever—and that will continue to motivate them.

2. Houston

Adding Chris Paul will give the Rockets a true team leader, and—with the exception of his stint in the Big Apple—Mike D’Antoni’s teams can always be counted on to ring up a bunch of wins in the regular season before falling short when it most counts. This year will be no different. To boot, I think their addition of defensive stoppers like P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute will fuel their winning ways to the 2nd seed. (And I think signing Nenê could be an impactful move for them as well.)

3. San Antonio

Without Kawhi and Coach Pop, this team is garbage. (No offense, Manu. You’re still one of my favorite basketball players of all-time!) But this team does have Kawhi Leonard, the best two-way player in the league, and Popovich, the greatest basketball coach I’ve ever seen. Until they slip, I’m not betting against them to slip lower than a perennial 50-win team.

4. Oklahoma City

Up until they traded for Carmelo Anthony, I thought the Thunder had a potent chance of becoming the 2nd or 3rd seed in the Western Conference this season. A starting line-up with three elite, lengthy defenders in George, Roberson and Steven Adams was beginning to give me bad flashbacks of the 2016 Oklahoma City Thunder that suffocated the 73-win Warriors into a 3-1 deficit in the Western Conference Finals. Adding Melo makes them more fearsome to deal with offensively on paper, but he’s a shit defender whether if he’s playing on a sorry-ass NBA franchise like the Knicks or surrounded by some of the greatest basketball players on the planet in the Olympics.

5. Denver

Since December 15 of last year, the Nuggets had the best offensive team in the NBA until the end of the season. Nikola Jokic and Gary Harris were the main pistons of that high-octane offense, and they added Paul Millsap in free agency. For understandable reasons, fans and players alike couldn’t stop talking about all the blockbuster trades that happened in the offseason, but I think adding Millsap—one of the most versatile big men in the league, and a stud on the defensive end—may be the most underrated move in the offseason. Michael Adams may no longer be running the point, but these Nuggets are going to be a fun team to watch.

6. Portland

After they traded for Jusuf Nurkić, last year’s Portland Trailblazers were a pretty good team. With Dame and McCollum returning to the backcourt, I expect more of the same from this team.

7. Minnesota

After adding Jimmy Butler (a top-20 NBA player), Taj Gibson and Jamal Crawford in the offseason, a lot of folks are high on the Timberwolves. I think and sincerely hope they’ll make the playoffs for the first time since 2004, but the hype around this team reminds me a bit of the hype surrounding the 2017 Oakland Raiders—and look how things are going for them. Unlike Del Rio, Tom Thibodeau is an excellent fucking coach, but has he changed much from his flameout with the Bulls? More importantly, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns—who was chosen as the best center by NBA general managers for the second year in a row—were god-awful defenders last year. Adding Butler will assuredly help, but losing Ricky Rubio, who is an excellent on-ball defender, won’t help them improve. I think they’ll struggle early on to pick up Thibodeau’s defensive scheme, but by the end of the season they’ll be playing their sharpest team ball. Best case scenario: they won’t be an easy out in the playoffs, even if they match up against the Warriors.

8. Utah

Quin Snyder’s a good, good coach, and the Jazz will return most of their squad from last year minus their former best player, Gordon Hayward. Unless Rodney Hood or Dante Exum make big leaps this season—or if Ricky Rubio inexplicably finds a good jump shot in his 7th season in the league—the Jazz will be a yawn to watch. But their defense will be sound and fierce. In the end, I think that will give them an edge over other teams like the Grizzlies, Clippers, or Mavs for the final playoff spot in the vaunted West.

Eastern Conference

1. Cleveland

After they added a 34-going-on-29 Derrick Rose and a 35-year-old Dwayne Wade, the 2017-2018 Cleveland Cavaliers officially became the modern version of the 2003-2004 Los Angeles Lakers, a team that added old-geezer versions of Gary Payton and The Mailman in a failed attempt to capture a title. And that team had two top-15 all-time NBA players in their prime with Shaq and Kobe. Right now, this Cavs team can only count on one all-time great: LeBron. They’re one injury from being exposed for what they are, which is a wild, incoherent assemblage of talent that doesn’t naturally piece together into a great team. This roster only makes sense with James as their orchestrator. Without him gluing them together, this is a lottery team (unless the 2016 version of Isaiah Thomas fully returns), not the second best team in the league; he is that great of a player.

2. Boston

The Celtics return only 4 players from last year’s team that made it to the Eastern Conference Finals. That’s crazy, but Trader Dan has shown in the distant past that he is capable of overhauling his roster in one offseason and turning it into an immediate championship contender. This will be a team I’ll keep an eye on. In last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, Jaylen Brown showed some real promise by becoming the team’s best defender in slowing down LeBron James. If he takes a significant leap this year, the Celtics can be a scary team sooner than we would imagine. Like Max Kellerman, I still very much question if Kyrie can be a franchise player to build around, but Brad Stevens’ dynamic passing offense can take his play to the next level.

3. Washington

Last year, I thought Washington was the one Eastern Conference team that could really push the Cavs in a seven-game series, and I still feel that way about them. John Wall and Bradley Beal return, giving them one of the best backcourts in the entire league. The Wiz front office overpaid to retain the services of Otto Porter Jr., but this is still a team with most of its best players on the youthful side of twenty. And their starting five is still one of the most formidable in the game; their bench remains the problem.

4. Milwaukee

General Manager Jon Horst seems to be trying his best to build a Midwestern version of the Golden State Warriors. The Bucks roster is filled with young ballers with long wingspans and athleticism. Their frenetic trapping defense can give teams problems, and continuity and experience should only continue to make them play well together. With Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the way, the Bucks should continue to trend upward. This guy’s a bad motherfucker (observe!):



5. Toronto

Somehow or another, Dwane Casey has kept his job. But I think homeboy’s luck is about to run out, and I just don’t see this roster getting any better. This team already peaked in the past two seasons, and they have jack shit to show for it. If they stumble out of the block, I wouldn’t be surprised if GM Bobby Webster makes a drastic move, like firing Casey, or blowing this team up and trading one or two of their high assets (like Valančiūnas, or maybe even DeRozan if his outside shot doesn’t begin to develop).

6. Miami

The Heat finished the season on a 30-11 tear, falling just short of the playoffs. Like most NBA analysts, I believe the Heat are closer to a 30-11 team than an 11-30 squad—but they’re not going to trot out this season and continue to win 73% of their games. I think they’re good for around 45 wins, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they win a few more and finish in the 4th or 5th seed. And to think, Dion Waiters has been the bellwether of their success.

7. Charlotte

The Hornets are basically composed of Kemba Walker and a bunch of scrubs. In the Eastern Conference, that’s enough to get in the playoffs.

8. Detroit

I really, really, really would rather have the Sixers taking this final spot, but I think they’ll fall short. Unless I’m wrong, Stan Van Gundy is still capable of being an excellent coach. They upgraded their shooting guard position with Avery Bradley, and I think his defensive prowess and shooting ability will be enough to push this team back into the playoffs with Drummond and Reggie Jackson leading the way.


Other Predictions:

NBA MVP: Kawhi Leonard
(If he stays healthy, LeBron has a clear path toward winning it this year. Steph will probably take third, but if the Warriors win 70 games and he shoots 50-40-90 and the Spurs and Cavs slip into the low 50-win range, he could take it again. Giannis is going to have another monster season. If the Bucks sniff 50 wins, he might get some serious consideration. And I do believe Kevin Durant is right that the Greek Freak could become one of the greatest players ever.)

Rookie of the Year: Dennis Smith Jr.

Biggest in-season trade: Boogie’s leaving New Orleans

I don’t think it’s going to go well for the Pellies. I think Alvin Gentry’s going to get fired, and Boogie’s not going to stay in town.

Most Disappointing Team: Oklahoma City Thunder
I agree with Tim Bontemps that OKC has the highest ceiling of any Western Conference team besides the Warriors, but I think they’re going to have some serious chemistry problems after adding Carmelo Anthony. He’s not a selfless player, and for OKC to reach their ceiling, he and Westbrook will have to magically find that attribute within themselves. I mean, just watch Melo’s introductory press conference with OKC when he's asked about possibly coming off the bench:

 

Good luck, Billy Donovan

Most Surprising Team: Brooklyn Nets

When Trader Dan moved his chips in for Kyrie Irving, including the unprotected 2018 Nets pick, I think he and his team seriously vetted the Nets and their likelihood for suckcess. It was a risky move, but I think they’re betting the Nets will be a mid-30-wins team, and I think that’s about right. They added a bunch of competent scrubs last year like Mozgov, Jeremy Lin, Allen Crabbe and D’Angelo Russell. Don’t be surprised if they’re in the hunt for the 8th playoff spot until the last few weeks of the season.

Besides the Nets, I wouldn’t sleep on the Kings, either (even though they’re in the daunting West).

Most Watchable Lottery Team: Los Angeles Lakers (or Philadelphia Sixers)

Honestly, this season, right now I’m more interested in seeing how these new teams with big names come together. (I’m looking at you, Houston, OKC, Minnesota and Clippers.) I also can’t wait to watch some Warriors vs. Lakers games. I hope Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram stay on the court and make them a fun team to watch. And the Sixers Joel Embiid is one of my favorite players to watch. For fuck’s sakes, have you seen these highlights? (I beseech you, basketball gods! Please him play a lot more than 31 games this season!):