The NBA just successfully pulled off two weeks of seeding games that surpassed my highest expectations. One of the three hotels in their Orlando bubble has now been vacated since 6 teams have left. On a recent Lowe Post podcast with guest Pablo Torre, ESPN's Zach Lowe shared that he spoke with a number of league officials who privately thought the riskiest juncture in the entire NBA restart were the seeding games when there would be more teams in the bubble and more players who could potentially become disengaged and partake in activities that could get them and others infected with the novel coronavirus. Before the NBA bubble was set up, I thought they had a less than 5% chance of pulling it off, but now I’m realistically hopeful that they can keep their Covid-19 bubble intact and that we will ultimately see an NBA champion crowned. There’s so much that is still horribly wrong with our country, so I’ll take this good sports news and run with it.
I feel especially grateful to have the opportunity to again put down some predictions for the NBA playoffs. This time around, I’m going to start each conference by highlighting the series I’m most interested in following. As usual, the Western Conference matchups look significantly more interesting, so let’s start there.
Western Conference
4. Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
This is the opening round series I’m most excited to see. It should be a great matchup despite Russell Westbrook’s injury and uncertain status for this series. In terms of drama, this series should pack a wallop: the Point God, Chris Paul, facing off against his old team and James Harden, who reportedly pushed to have him traded, and Westbrook playing against the franchise he led for 11 seasons. Other than winning a chip, you know there probably isn’t anything Chris Paul wants more than to eliminate Harden and the Rockets after they dealt him in the offseason to a team that everyone thought was going to tank for draft capital. I generally hate Chris Paul, but I’m going to be rooting for him in this series since I hate Harden and Westbrook (to a lesser degree) and the Rockets that much more.
In terms of styles, these two teams couldn’t be any more different, so it’s going to be a fascinating matchup. In the end, I think OKC with a bonafide center like Steven Adams, a capable scorer in Danilo Gallinari and a potent three-guard backcourt with Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schröder (returning from paternity leave) will find more ways to beat the small-ball Rockets. This season, the Thunder were one of the top crunch-time teams with the crafty Chris Paul leading the way. The Rockets’ extreme small-ball experiment could work and take them deep into the playoffs, but I think they lack the athletic, rangy, and gritty 6’8 – 6’10 personnel who can capably switch on defense, pop in open 3s, and clean the glass enough for them to win against the best teams.
Prediction: Thunder in 7
2. Los Angeles Clippers vs. 7 Dallas Mavericks
Man, in terms of star power, this opening-round series cannot be topped. Luka recently dropped one of his finest games ever, and his highlights from that game alone were sick, jaw-dropping, and reminiscent of Larry Bird’s career highlights (and I don’t say that lightly). He’s an unfuckingbelievable player:
But the Clippers are uniquely equipped to slow him and the Mavericks just enough with elite wing defenders like Kawhi, Paul George, and the feisty Patrick Beverly. The Clippers owned them in their regular season series, and I don’t think much will change here.
During these bubble games, the Clippers at times reminded me of the 2018-2019 Golden State Warriors: sometimes they were engaged and supremely dominant against anyone they played, and oftentimes they looked aloof and going through the motions during the regular season. Given the Warriors’ four straight appearances in the NBA Finals, it was understandable to a point, but this team—other than Kawhi Leonard—haven’t accomplished a damn thing in the playoffs, so I will be curious to see if they flip the proverbial switch and play engaged for 48 minutes every game now that it’s the playoffs. From what I’ve seen thus far, they’re still my favorites to win it all.
Prediction: Clippers in 5
1. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 8. Portland Trailblazers
Like the Bucks and Clippers, the Lakers did not impress in their seeding games. And LeBron—ever the whiner—cryptically complained about the wholly unique experience of playing in a Covid-19 bubble. Since the Lakers (and Bucks) had no incentive to play hard down the stretch because there is no home court advantage throughout the playoffs to play for in the Orlando bubble, it’s hard to tell if their play in the seeding games should be a legitimate cause for concern. I did see them play hard against the Clippers, and they needed it all to squeak out a win over a team missing 2 of their top 5-6 players (Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell were out), which should concern me if I were a Lakers fan. If The Brow isn’t cooking and if LeBron isn’t setting up his teammates, their half-court offense looks dismal, which should be a real concern with the playoffs upon us where the game tends to grind and slow down. And through these eight seeding games, I still have no idea who the Lakers third best player really is. I know it’s supposed to be Kyle Kuzma, but it oftentimes isn’t since he’s such a streaky shooter. On any given night, their third best player might be Kuzma, Danny Green, JaVale Green, or even Dwight Howard (in limited minutes). If this trend continues, I think it could be a big problem for them.
The Blazers come into the 2020 playoffs with a 7-2 record in the bubble. For two weeks, each one of their games have had the intensity of a playoff game since they were battling to keep their season alive. From an emotional standpoint, they will be tested and more than ready from the jump in this series, but I do wonder how much they physically have in the tank, especially with CJ McCollum limited with a fractured vertebrae and Zach Collins still getting back into the swing of things. The Lakers will undoubtedly feel more rested, which can be the difference in Game 1.
As was clearly seen in their final seeding games, the Blazers have no fucking defense. This can be a big problem against the Lakers who come into the series with struggles on the offensive end. Ultimately, the Lakers have the two best players in this series. (Sorry, Dame.) I can see the Blazers winning at least one, and maybe two if they have a hot-shooting night from downtown, but that difference in top-tier talent will be the difference.
Prediction: Lakers in 6
3. Denver Nuggets vs. 6. Utah Jazz
Until today, when it was announced that Mike Conley was leaving the bubble and that Ed Davis will be out this entire series with a knee injury, I thought this series might be a close one to call, but I think it’s now clearly tilted toward the Nuggets. They have the best player in the series with Nikola Jokić (though Donovan Mitchell has the potential to be the best player in this series, and will have to be if the Jazz want to win), the best starting five, and the deeper bench. The one advantage the Jazz have is at coach with Quin Snyder, but Mike Malone is no slouch so even that’s not a huge advantage. Not having Bojan Bogdanović is a critical loss for the Jazz, especially in the playoffs where he has shown to be a clutch performer, and they will not be able to overcome in this opening round series.
Prediction: Nuggets in 6
Eastern Conference
3. Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
In terms of drama and rivalry, this first-round series is undoubtedly the most titillating one in the Eastern Conference. Al Horford will face his old team he left in the offseason, and Joel Embiid will be pitted against a team he has absolutely dominated whenever he is healthy and engaged. In recent years, the Sixers have been a bad matchup for the Celtics and their plethora of talented wings, but that’s probably out the window since Ben Simmons is injured and out for the remainder of the season.
Boston is just too good, disciplined, experienced, and talented to lose this opening series. The only way the Sixers can win is if Embiid has a monster game—and I just don’t see him putting together at least four of those type of efforts to help his team win a seven-game series. With Simmons out of the lineup, I will be very curious to see how Philly looks by surrounding The Process with outside shooters, but I think they’re going to sorely miss Simmons’ All-NBA-level defense, especially with a bad motherfucker like Jayson Tatum on the court.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
2. Toronto Raptors vs. 7. Brooklyn Nets
The Raptors title defense begins against the patchwork of scrubs and NBA no-bodies that largely populate the Nets’ roster. After last season’s title, the Raptors confidence and belief in themselves remains sky-high. With Nick Nurse at the helm, this team may be the wiliest, brainiest, and grittiest in the league. The Nets play with good effort and spirit night and night out, but they simply do not have the talent or experience to keep up with the Raptors. Caris LeVert was shredding the Blazers lackluster defense in their final seeding game, but he will not have such an easy time against the top scoring defense in the league (and second in opponent’s FG% behind the Bucks). I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a sweep.
Prediction: Raptors in 5
4. Indiana Pacers vs. 5. Miami Heat
With their depth and elite wing defenders, the Heat are favorably matched up against the Pacers led by All-Bubble player T.J. Warren, Malcolm Brogdon, and Victor Oladipo, who is returning from a brutal ruptured quadriceps tendon. This series would be too close to call if Domantis Sabonis was playing, but he’s out with a foot injury. The Heat defense looked bad in a couple of their seeding games, but once they were locked into this series with little chance of catching the the 3rd seeded Celtics, it’s hard to tell just how hard they were trying. We’ll see where they are at starting in their first game of this series.
Prediction: Heat in 5
1. Milwaukee Bucks vs. 8. Orlando Magic
This is, by far, the first-round series I am least interested in. The only thing I’ll be keen to find out from this series is just how much the Bucks were disengaged and mailing it in during the seeding bubble games because they did not look the least bit impressive.
Prediction: Bucks in 4
Predictions for the Conference Finals:
Clippers over the Lakers
Raptors over the Bucks
No comments:
Post a Comment