Well, holy shit: my beloved Warriors are back in the Finals, four wins away from winning another chip. It’s wild. We’ve been so unbelievably spoiled: 6 Finals appearances in 8 seasons! We may never see an NBA team go on a run like this again.
At the beginning of the season, I was cautiously optimistic about my Warriors. I thought our ceiling was nabbing a #3 to #6 seed in the depleted Western Conference with the Nuggets and Clippers both mired with injuries to a few of their star players. After we beat the Lakers in the season opener, I was all smiles because it never ever gets old beating the fucking Lakers or LeBron. At the time, most of us thought the Lakers would be title contenders, so I thought, one freaking game into the season, that finishing with a #3 to #6 seed was totally plausible. Back then, I thought a Western Conference Finals run, if lots of things went right, was in play, but I realistically didn’t think we’d be back in the Finals this season. I guess I wasn’t sure if we’d ever make it back to the Finals with Steph and Draymond aging and Klay coming back from two catastrophic injuries on the wrong side of thirty.
So making it back is unbelievably sweet. Reminds me of that charmed feeling I felt when this championship core made their first Finals appearance back in 2015.
The Warriors are a different team now. Back then, Steph, Klay, and Draymond were the youngsters trying to prove to themselves that they could be champions. Now we’re like the last Spurs title teams: the cagey, veteran team with abundant experience and championship poise you can’t fake. Now we’re trying to reclaim title glory, perhaps for a final time, while desperately trying to fend off a young, hungry, battle-tested, and supremely talented team.
What a matchup.
Over the past month and a half, the Warriors and Celtics have been the two teams I’ve watched the most. The Warriors are my team, and the Celtics have been pitted against great and fascinating opponents throughout these playoffs, such as the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks and the pitiful mess that was the Brooklyn Nets. When the playoffs started, my good friend and I both thought that either the Suns or Warriors would emerge from the Western Conference while either the Bucks or Celtics would come out of the East.
On the Warriors side, I’m curious to see how tight or expansive Kerr’s rotation will ultimately be. Without a doubt, if healthy and available, I think Kerr will have a nine-man rotation with the starters—Steph, Klay, Wiggs, Draymond, and Looney (a.k.a. Loonajuwon, a.k.a. Mose Malooney)—with Poole, Porter, Gary Payton II (a.k.a. Young Glove; a.k.a. GPII), and Iguodala in the mix. Against the Celtics, I can see a few other possible rotation players: Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga, and possibly Nemanja Bjelica (a.k.a. Beli). I would bet money Moody steps on the court in this series, but it’s probably unlikely that Kuminga and Bjelica will see any minutes. If J-Ku gets significant minutes in this series, it’s probably not a good sign for the Dubs; it probably means that our main rotation is struggling to match up with Boston’s length, youth, and athleticism, and struggling to score in the half-court. Boston has a terrific fleet of wings—the best collection the Warriors could possibly face—but they can struggle to contain a strong, physical wing like Kuminga, much like they struggled to contain Jimmy Butler in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Like Warriors beat writer extraordinaire, Marcus Thompson II, opined on the Warriors Plus-Minus podcast, I think this is a series where our playoff rotation can expand, unlike our series against Memphis. Early on, I anticipate Kerr will likely rely on his veteran players, but as the series unfolds, I can see Kerr and his coaching staff turning to their rookies, Moody and Kuminga, to see if they’re ready for this stage, to see if they can change the calculus of this matchup.
While the Celtics are built to suffocate modern NBA offenses, the Warriors should have a slate of perimeter defenders to make Jayson Tatum work for every bucket in this series. The Warriors will undoubtedly send Wiggins to defend him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we allow Looney to try to defend him on the perimeter. Against the Mavs, Loon showed he was capable of keeping in front of Dončić. Tatum’s a quicker, more athletic adversary, so we’ll see how much Looney can keep up with him, but I’m confident he can make Tatum work to get around him, or get separation out on the perimeter. Although it’s unlikely, Draymond might occasionally be tasked to defend Tatum one-on-one out at the 3-point line. Barring availability, Iggy and GPII also figure to be in the defensive mix against Tatum. In these 2022 NBA Playoffs, Tatum is averaging a league-high 4.3 turnovers per game amongst active players. This is Westbrick territory, folks, so GPII can be a critical defensive weapon against Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who is averaging 3 turnovers per game in these playoffs. Moody and J-Ku may also get some time defending the Celtics dynamic wing duo.
Warriors X-factors: Otto Porter & Gary Payton II
The Warriors have so many possible X-factor players, including Klay and Jordan Poole, but I’m going to pick Otto Porter and GPII. Porter is a surprisingly critical player in this series for the Warriors because if he’s too banged up to be effective than the Warriors might be in trouble. If he’s out, Kerr may have no choice but to turn to Kuminga and Iguodala, who has been unavailable most of these playoffs. On an undersized team, Porter is a key 6’8” rugged defender in the interior and a guy who can impact the game with rebounding and hustle like he did in our series against the young, brash Memphis Grizzlies. Also, if his outside shots are dropping, the Warriors are a much tougher team to beat.
GPII is another X-factor. He’s recovering from a broken left elbow in his shooting arm, so it’s very uncertain at this point just how much he will be able to contribute in this series. There’s no doubt he’ll be able to run around the court and fight off of screens to hound his matchup, but can he contribute on the offensive end to keep in the game? The Celtics will dare him to shoot from the outside. When the opportunity arises, will he be able to knock those shots down like he did in our opening series against the Denver Nuggets? If so, that’s a potentially huge boon for the Warriors because he is one of the best on-ball defenders in the entire NBA. This season, he led the NBA with 2.8 steals per 36 minutes. He is also amongst the leaders in deflections. The Celtics are among the league leaders in turnovers this postseason with Tatum and Brown as their primary culprits. GPII can make life hell for them if he can stay on the court in this series. Our optimal defensive lineup in this series undoubtedly includes GPII. If he can play around 20 minutes this series, that’s probably a really good sign for the Warriors.
On the other side, for the Celtics to win, I think a number of facets and intangibles have to go their way, which they are very capable of pulling off. For them to win this series, my guess is:
- Jaylen Brown needs to have a great series, not just a good series.
- Boston needs to win the turnover battle—and decisively in a couple of games.
- Boston needs to muck up this series and grind out a few low-scoring games (like less than 100 points scored by the Warriors).
- Boston needs to have a hot 3-point shooting night for at least 2 games, maybe even 3 games.
- Timelord needs to stay on the court and be impactful on the defensive end.
- Tatum needs to hit big buckets in 2 close games.
- Grant Williams needs to be an impactful player for most games in this series.
- Derrick White probably needs to keep up his hot 3-point shooting.
- Boston probably needs to play Jordan Poole off the court (i.e., less than 20 minutes per game).
Celtics X-factor: Jaylen Brown
Brown has been superb in these playoffs, unquestionably the Celtics 2nd best player behind All-NBA 1st teamer Jayson Tatum. His scoring average is just a shade below his regular season average, but his 48.5/38.6 2-point and 3-point shooting splits are a bit higher than his regular season percentages. Brown has been key in the 4th quarters this postseason, teaming with Tatum as their most reliable bucket-getters in the clutchiest of moments.
The Celtics half-court offense is nothing to write home about. They struggled to score against a depleted Miami Heat team. Tatum has single-handedly raised the ceiling of this team by taking his offensive and defensive game to new levels this season, but they lack offensive punch outside of their All-Star duo. The Celtics have to shoot well from the outside in order to have high-scoring nights, and I think Brown’s outside shooting will be critical in this series. If he’s shooting above 40%, like he did in their epic series against the Bucks, the Celtics will have a better chance of beating the Warriors than if he’s shooting subpar from distance.
Prediction!
On paper, the Celtics have a more talented top-7 rotation, but I think our depth may be a factor in this series, especially since Boston is coming off of two straight 7-game series.
The Warriors have more dynamic offensive players. We have more guys who can pop off on any given night for +20 points in a game (Steph, Klay, Wiggins, or Poole) whereas Boston only has Tatum and Brown who can reasonably provide that with probably one +20-point game from Smart in this series, and one from some other guys, like Horford and Grant Williams.
I think this series is going a minimum of 6 games. I can realistically see how the Celtics could emerge in 6, or 7—and I can see that for the Warriors as well.
In the end, I think the Warriors have more ways to win this series. We can punish the Celtics with offensive rebounding and second-chance points. For once, the Warriors can reasonably expect to win the turnover battle in at least 1-2 games in this series. If Iggy and GPII can play and stay on the court, we have a ton of guys to throw at Tatum and Brown to wear them down as the series draws out.
On the other hand, when healthy, Boston’s defense is the best unit in these NBA playoffs.
The Celtics also have more two-way players than the Warriors. Back in 2015 and 2016, that was the Warriors key to success: we had more and better two-way players than our opponents.
The Celtics are uniquely equipped to beat the Warriors. I think they’re the worst matchup for us, and this should be our biggest test in many years, dating back to the 2016 Western Conference Finals when we went down 3-1 to the Oklahoma City Thunder. (LeBron’s Cavs never stood a chance against us if we were healthy, and I would humbly say the same of the 2019 Toronto Raptors.)
To boot, the Celtics are a lackluster home team in these playoffs. In their last two rounds, they are 3-4 playing on TD Garden’s parquet floor. Championship teams have to win on the road—and I expect both teams to win on the road in this series—but I think, more often than not, they should also be steadier at home than these Celtics.
It should be a terrific matchup: the league’s best defense against the most unique offense in the NBA.
Prediction: Warriors in 6
Loonajuwon
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