2015-2016 NBA Playoff Preview: Opening Round

Oh sweet baby Jesus, after an eighty-two game regular season grind, the 2015-2016 NBA Playoffs commence this Saturday! For the second time in NBA history, this year’s playoffs will include two teams with over 65 wins. (During the 2008-2009 season the Cleveland Cavs entered the playoffs with 66 wins while Kobe’s Lakers had 65 regular season wins.) Those two teams—the San Antonio Spurs, and, in particular, the Golden State Warriors—are heavy favorites to win it all according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest NBA Predictions:

Prior to this season, 17 teams—including last year’s Warriors—have won 65 regular-season games. 14 of them have won the title, so it seems extremely likely (with apologies to Cavalier and Thunder fans) that either the Warriors or Spurs will hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy amidst a rain of champagne two months from now.

On paper, this year’s First Round doesn’t feature many enticing duels like the epic opening round of the 2013-2014 NBA Playoffs, but the second round could feature some excellent matchups.

Here’s my quick breakdown and predictions for the opening round:

Clown Without Pity's 2015 Divisional Round Playoffs

Although I didn’t publish my predictions for the Wild Card Round, I will admit I didn’t do so well with my picks: a deflating 2-2. The two losses? I picked Pittsburgh and—get ready to laugh at my pisspoor predicting skills (or lack thereof): Cincinnati. I was smitten with making Pittsburgh my 2014-2015 Dark Horse to Make It To The Super Bowl but why did I ever pick Andy Dalton to win on the road in Indianapolis? And why are you reading this post?

I mention this futility because this week I’m going conservative. No bold upset picks from me! Sure, a road team is bound to pull off an upset, but numbers don’t lie and I will be more cautious about picking against recent playoff trends.

Onward we go:  

Baltimore at New England
Fun fact I heard last week while the game was underway, but the Baltimore Ravens are now 7-0 in their playoff openers under John Harbaugh. That’s pretty fucking impressive. Winning in the playoffs is no easy task. Just ask Marvin Lewis. So what’s today’s fun fact concerning this game?: Bill Belichick’s Patriot teams are 8-1 in Divisional Round games after earning a first-round bye. That’s pretty fucking impressive, too.

Too many things have to go right for Baltimore to pull off this upset even though Harbaugh’s Ravens are 2-1 in New England during the playoffs. Their front-seven has to have a penultimate dominant game to win; their pass rush—2nd best this season—has to throw Brady off his rhythm. It could happen, but I think New England has more ways to win this game. Whatever sport it is, it’s safer to pick those teams to win. Plus, unlike previous Patriot teams that lost at home against a Harbaugh-led Raven squad, these Patriots have the best defense since their Super-Bowl-winning days. I’m taking New England.  

Indianapolis at Denver
Two top-shelf QBs with nearly identical numbers in the regular season. Denver has a statistically-stout defense—aaaaaand Indy’s rushing attack strikes about as much fear as a fucking Smurf, meaning Denver will likely be able to tee off and send their pass rushers, which includes DeMarcus Ware, after Luck most of the game. That can be ugly.

Only thing that gives me pause about this game is that Denver’s special teams suck (according to DVOA rankings) and the Colts field the 9th best unit. Remember the sage words of Jimmy “I Got Barry Switzer a Fucking Ring!” Johnson: you gotta win in at least two facets of the game.

Still, I’m taking Denver at home.  


Carolina at Seattle
This is kind of a cute game; the regular season 7-8-1 Panthers travel to the Emerald City to play against the previous NFL franchise to send a team with a losing record to the playoffs. As has been noted, these two teams have had close recent contests. My boy, Bill Barnwell at Grantland wrote a good write-up about some unusual tendencies that have sprouted between Riverboat Ron’s teams and Carroll’s Seahawks. I can see this one being like the Seahawks final regular season matchup against the Rams: a close game through the first half before getting their shit together and pulling comfortably away at some point in the second half. This would be a top-15 NFL playoff shocker if the Panthers can pull it off, but I don’t see that happening. The NFC title will run through CenturyLink Field for a second straight year.  

Dallas at Green Bay
What a game: Tony Romo returning to his home state to try to pull off the biggest win of his life.  Two big-time offenses.  This game can be dandy.

As well coached as they are, I just don’t see Big D’s D holding Rodgers and his offense from lighting up the scoreboard in Lambeau Field. But, as we well know, Dom Capers hasn’t led a fearsome defense since their last title in 2010—and that Cowboys offense can sizzle hotter than a dozen eggs on the pavement during a scorching Texas summer. Last week I was most unsure about the AFC games; this week, I feel like Baltimore and Dallas have the best shot at pulling off an upset. After all, maybe Rodgers has been sticking it to Olivia Munn a la doggy off the edge of the bed a bit too much, and, in the process, mayhaps not allowing his tender calf to properly heal? (And what straight man could blame him?) But I still think the Pack is winning this game.

Are you ready for some football?: my 2014 NFL Preview

Well, well, well; it’s that time of the year again when pigskins go zinging through the air, its every movement followed by 22 superhuman beings and packed stadiums all across ‘Merica. Last year, the Seahawks annihilated the statistically greatest offense of all time (though it clearly wasn’t in actuality; give me the 1994 San Francisco 49ers any day over a Peyton Manning regular season juggernaut) to bring the Lombardi Trophy to the Emerald City for the first time. Can they repeat again? Can the Seahawks cash in on the final season of Russell Wilson’s rookie contract before that loaded roster is imploded due to budget constraints?

Like everyone and their football-watching mother, I couldn’t stop myself from making predictions about how this season will shake out. How piss-poor will my predictions be this season? And could I luck out and correctly pick this year’s Super Bowl champion?

So, without further ado, I humbly offer my predictions for this year’s division champions and Wild Cards.

AFC East:
New England
Judging from ESPN’s listing of NFL predictions for this year , I don’t think any sports writer is picking anyone other than the Patriots to win this division. Even if Brady were injured and lost for the season, they would probably still squeak out a division title. That said, I think one of the Wild Cards will go to either the Dolphins or Jets.

AFC North:
Baltimore
As far as I’m concerned, this is the most intriguing division in the AFC. Although I don’t think the Browns have a legitimate chance of winning the division, I think all four teams can contend for it. At home, none of these teams will be a pushover. In terms of organizational pedigree both Baltimore and Pittsburgh have what it takes to win the division; Cincinnati certainly has the talent—except they have an average quarterback getting paid like a franchise QB.

So why do I think Baltimore is going to win it? In terms of offseason moves I think the Bengals are in for a moderate to serious let down; I think losing both of their coordinators—especially Zimmer on the defensive end—is going to hurt them. Plus, I have a feeling the offensive line isn’t going to be as strong as they have been in recent years, which means good defenses are going to expose Dalton for the poor pocket passer he is when under pressure. (Read Bill Barnwell’s excellent article about The Red Rifle .) By the end of this year, a more appropriate nickname for Dalton will be The Red BB Gun. (I predict that after this season the Bengals are going to pursue another franchise quarterback through the draft.) In fact, I predict that the Bengals are going to implode; this might be Marvin Lewis’ last season at the coaching helm if they fall to a 6-10 record, which I think is plausible.

Pittsburgh still looks so-so; you can’t count them out with a mostly healthy Roethlisberger, the best quarterback in the division. However, I think Baltimore is going to improve on both sides of the ball; best case scenario, their defense can resemble the mighty Ravens defenses of the recent past, and I think their running game is going to be significantly improved with Gary Kubiak as their offensive coordinator, which means Flacco is due for a comeback year.

In sum, I think Baltimore has the best mixture of talent and good coaching to win this division, which is why I’m picking them.

AFC South:
Houston
This division resembles the AFC North in that I don’t think any team—including Gus Bradley’s Jacksonville Jaguars—will be an easy team to defeat. Like the Browns, I don’t think the Jaguars are quite ready to contend for the division title, but they’re not too far off.

I think this will be the most mediocre division in the AFC. A 9-7 record could be enough to win it. Indianapolis, Houston, and Tennessee figure to be around .500 teams, but I’m going to go out on a teeny limb and predict two things: 1) the Colts magical run of winning close games in the Andrew Luck era is coming to a screeching end this year; they’ll break even—or worse—in tight games, and that will be enough to knock them off the top, and 2) Houston is going to make a significant bounce-back this year. From a talent standpoint last year’s Houston Texans were not your typical 2-14 team. They weren’t the 2011 Indianapolis Colts who went 2-14 with the likes of Curtis Painter behind center; the Texans lost a lot of close games last year and essentially gave up on their coach midway through the season. With JJ Watts and Clowney lining up in their front four, they’re going to be a nightmare for many teams. Their defensive line has two of the biggest freak athletes in this league, perhaps this planet.



I think they’ll finish 9-7 and squeak out a division title over the Colts, who can’t overachieve for three years straight. There has to be some sort of law of nature against that.

AFC West:
Denver
Not much to say here: the Broncos will win this division easily. Their defense should be improved; their offense will probably have a slight drop-off, but not much. The Chiefs will come crashing back down to mediocrity and I think the Chargers will easily be the second best team in this division. Losing Whisenhunt as their offensive coordinator will hurt but I think their defense is going to continue to improve. At the end of the 2013-2014 season they found their identity as a defense, and I think Pagano is going to build his defense from that experience. With a few more playmakers, I think they’ll be a middle-of-the-pack defense with a potential top-10 offense. Since the Chiefs and Raiders are going to suck, I think the Bolts will be back in the playoffs as a Wild Card.

And since the Raiders are my team, here’s a few predictions for my beloved Silver & Black: for the second straight season—and it pains me to type this—I think we’re going to finish 4-12; the team is improved but we have one of the toughest schedules this year. McKenzie’s going to keep his job thanks to what looks like will be a solid to good to possibly really good 2014 draft class (so far no cuts! No Tyler Wilsons! And I agree with columnist Tim Kawakami: Derek Carr is the best quarterback prospect the Raiders have had since Rich Gannon’s glory years.) but Dennis Allen will have to go. And thank god because I have never had any reason to believe that he could be a good coach.

AFC Wild Cards: Dolphins, Chargers

NFC East:
Philadelphia
Aww, yeah; Motownphilly's back again! If he stays healthy again, I think LeSean McCoy may lead the league in touchdowns this year. The Philly offense should be outstanding, and that defense has to get better at some point, right? In time, I think Jay Gruden will bring the best out of The Self-Absorbed One, RGIII, but I don’t have much reason to think he’s going to make a big comeback-splash this year when their preseason brought up the question: Has Kirk Cousins outplayed RGIII? Not a good sign. Having DeShit Jackson on their roster should be good for one victory but it won’t be enough to lift them over the Eagles. Eli should have a better season with a new West Coast offense but their defense is not like the one that recently won them two Super Bowls over the Patriots. And the Cowboys? Ha, they’re a joke, like their owner (though I wouldn’t be surprised if they have a top-5 scoring offense—but, they’re going to have one of the worst defenses in the league.)

NFC North:
Green Bay
I’m on the Cheesehead bandwagon, man; I have been for a few years since I predicted their Super Bowl winning run back in 2011. Last year I said I’d take Aaron Rodgers over Tom Brady or Peyton Manning and I’d still take him over those two this year. Despite playing half of their games in Lambeau Field, Green Bay could have the top scoring offense in the league. The question with them has always been: but what about their defense? Is it time for Dom Capers to go, or can he lead a top defense again? I have my doubts, but I think they’ll have a statistically average defense, which, coupled with a Rodgers/Eddie Lacy-led offense is going to be more than enough to top the Bears, Lions, and Vikings.

NFC South:
New Orleans
This is an interesting division. Will Mike Smith’s Falcons bounce back into the playoffs? Will Lovie Smith pull a Jon Gruden and maximize Tampa Bay’s talented roster enough to win the division? Or will Drew Brees and Sean Payton continue to do their thing and win this division?

I’m betting on the latter. The Saints defense should continue to improve, which is scary. And have you seen how accurate Drew Brees is?



NFC West:
Seattle
Arguably the toughest division in football. Despite a few defections, I think Seattle has too much young talent on both sides of the ball to stumble off their perch as the kings of this division. On the other hand, I think San Francisco could decline on both sides of the ball, especially their defense. With Aldon Smith suspended for the first nine games of the season and Navarro "Bad Motherfucker" Bowman already out for a chunk of time, the Niners are a Patrick Willis or Justin Smith injury away from possibly being a mediocre defense. And then the offense: are they really going to be a vastly improved unit if they switch to being a more pass-happy-oriented offense? Barring how the new defensive holding rules pan out, will this offensive transition really help them beat their West Coast nemesis whose strength is their pass defense (especially when Seattle has lost some of their DL depth, which I think may make them more vulnerable to a good rushing attack than last year’s defense)? I think too many things have to break for the 49ers to win this division, especially when St. Louis’ defense is continuing to improve to Tennesse-Titan-Jeff-Fisher-led heights. (The Rams might be improved with former Niner, Shaun Hill as their starting quarterback.)

NFC Wild Cards: San Francisco, Tampa Bay (I could easily put Atlanta here instead.)

As of right now, I think there are four legitimate Super Bowl contenders: Seattle, Green Bay, Denver, and New England. On the cusp (and in order): New Orleans, San Francisco, and Baltimore.

Super Bowl: Green Bay over Denver (Rodgers 2-0, Peyton 1-3 in the Big Game)

Clown Without Pity's 2014 World Cup Predictions

Well, well, well, even though I hardly watch The Fútbol, only tuning in for the World Cup and World-Cup-qualifying matches every four revolutions around the sun, I’ve decided to give this whole predicting-a-winner a whirl. To give you a glimpse of my epic prowess for predicting outcomes in this World Cup, I will confess that I correctly picked a whopping 9 out of the 16 teams that advanced out of the group stage. (I knew I should’ve picked the United States over perennial underachiever, Portugal! And what the fuck was I smoking when I picked Russia and Honduras to advance out of their respective groups?) Someone get me a plane to Vegas!

Okay, without further ado, here’s my ill-informed picks for the quarterfinal matches:

France vs. Germany

After they clocked Portugal in their opening match, a lot of people—including moi—anointed Deutschland as the favorite to win it all—aaaaaaannnd, then they tied 2-2 against Ghana. Against The Stars & Stripes they seemed to play at around 70% of their capacity; they kind of seemed to toy with the U.S.—content to play hard in spurts but almost unwilling to really, really push themselves. Going to extra periods with Algeria was one of the big surprises of the tournament for me. By the end of regulation time an upset seemed plausible, which was astonishing, but then Germany scored two minutes into the first extra period.

So will The Real Deutschland please stand up? Is it the squad that blitzkrieged the overrated Portugal squad 4-0, or the one with two not-so-impressive victories in their past two games?

And lest I piss off my French homies, let us not forget that we do have a game here, which means that an oppositional force must be pitted against Germany in order to create this thing we call a match. So what can be said about the 2014 French national team? They have scored ten goals in four matches while allowing only two goals—both to Switzerland. They scored five goals against a Swiss team that shut out Argentina through 90 minutes in their final match. I don’t think much was expected of them in this World Cup after their star winger with jacked-up teeth, Franck Ribery, went down with a back injury.

I think this is as far as France goes. The U.S. won’t be able to bail them out this time. (I promise you, this is my one bad historical joke I will allow myself.) Germany’s going to the semi-finals.

Colombia vs. Brazil

Oh sweet Jesus, this is going to be the game! I can’t wait until 1 p.m. PST on the 4th of July: the two best teams in South America (sorry, Argentina) will face off. Being an unapologetic supporter of New World teams in the World Cup, a big part of me pities that this match is happening before the semi-final round. But what a game.

So Brazil barely advanced to this stage. It would have been a disaster and monumental shame if this country that has gone to such pains to host these games would not even make it to the quarterfinal round, but the unforgiving goal post spared them twice in their last game against the scrappy Chilean squad. Though I was relieved they won, I don’t think any Brazilian could’ve left that game feeling chipper about their team’s chances in advancing in the tournament with a performance like that.

Brazil clearly lacks offensive chemistry. They lack a playmaker or two in the midfield who can make goal-scoring easy for Neymar or Porn-stache Fred. There’s no fluidity, beauty, or sabor to their offensive game. They hardly resemble recent Brazilian squads with stars like Ronaldo, Kaka, Rivaldo, Ronaldinho, Romario (to kick it a little more old school), or my boy, Roberto Carlos (check out the .54 second mark of this clip:)



Colombia, on the other hand, has the leading goal scorer in the cup, James “Bad Motherfucker” Rodríguez (check this goal out); their defense has been stout, and they’ve played a sexy game. In terms of cohesion and precision they’ve been superior to their South American veciños. From what we’ve seen in the past three weeks, Colombia is South America’s best hope to hoist the Cup, and I think they’ll continue to prove it by advancing past Brazil on their soil.

Belgium vs. Argentina

Like most folks I’m fairly certain of the outcome of three of the quarterfinal games, but this is the one I’m struggling with the most.

Let’s start with Argentina. Only one word is needed to sum up their hopes of advancing or winning this World Cup: Messi. La Pulga has finally had the strong World Cup performance we predicted in 2010. He notched four goals in the three group games and assisted on the goal that finally broke Switzerland’s defense in their first knockout game. Their opposition has been loading up in the backfield in hopes of countering Argentina’s attack. Messi regularly sees two midfield defenders rush at him whenever he gets the ball. For the most part, this strategy has worked to stifle their offense because La Pulga lacks play-making teammates on the wings who can make teams pay for doubling him. No Carlos Tevez (that dude could kick), and the 35-year-old Maxi Rodríguez isn’t an offensive threat. Of the eight remaining teams, no team is more dependent on one player to carry them than Argentina. Though it’s not the best analogy, ask the Cleveland Cavalier version of LeBron James how that turned out for him when his team advanced to the championship level.

As for Belgium, they have a stout defense; they’ve allowed two goals through four games. And here’s an impressive stat: their six goals have come from six different players.

With Mertens, Hazard, and the 21-year-old Lukaku—the difference maker in their match against the U.S.—Belgium has a couple of offensive threats. Unlike Switzerland, I think Belgium has the offensive depth and talent that can score on Argentina in a counter-attack. I think one of them will penetrate Argentina’s defense. Against Switzerland, Argentina kept up their attack throughout the game while maintaining their composure. In their four matches they have yet to trail an opponent and I question if they can keep the same composure against a strong defensive team like Belgium if they are not the first to score. I think Belgium will pull this one off.

Netherlands vs. Costa Rica

What an interesting match: the aggressive, foul-happy Orange floppers (I’m looking at you, Arjen Robben) against the Ticos from Costa Rica. Like Germany, the Netherlands announced themselves as favorites with a devastation of defending World Cup champion, Spain in their opening World Cup match. And like Germany, their play has been not-so-astounding since. It’s been kind of downward slope, methinks. During their last match, Mexico dominated the Netherlands in the first half, took the lead with a goal a few minutes after halftime, but then the Orange Crush dominated the ball and ultimately scored two late goals to snatch victory from a timid Mexican squad that stopped playing like they had when they took the lead. Van Gogh’s brethren exalted while the world was robbed of any more material from Mexico’s Miguel Herrera.

Like Mexico, Costa Rica has been one of the big surprises of the tournament—arguably the biggest surprise. Down a man, they hung against Greece and won in shootouts to advance to the quarterfinals.

Can they pull off another surprise? Maybe. Do I think they will? No. I think their surprising run ends here though god knows I’m fucking rooting hard for them because I don’t want Robben and his flair for dramatic flopping to advance.

Semi-finals:
Typically I resist making far-reaching (and ridiculous) bracket predictions, but what the hell; I don’t want to write a separate post for the semi-finals. For what it’s worth, here’s this fool’s predictions for the rest of the Cup. It has a healthy dose of wishful thinking but I do think this outcome lies in the realm of feasibility; after all, history often teaches us the most likely outcome and a European team has never won a World Cup hosted in South America; I don't think that will be broken in this Copa Mundial:

• Colombia over Deutschland
• Netherlands over Belgium
• Colombia over the Netherlands

Is it Friday already?

My 2013 NFL season preview

With Labor Day weekend in full swing, the smell of burger patties, hot dogs, and other assorted dead animal parts frying on grills throughout America, the sound of pigskins spiraling through the air to commence the beginning of the 2013 NFL season is but a few days away. And I can feel whole again!, watching this “savage ballet,” as Lil’ Lisa Simpson called it.

And it’s also that time of the year when schmucks like myself assume armchair-quarterback roles on couches, bars, and gyms throughout this country while making predictions about how the season will shape out. My fellow blogsmith, Justin Goldman—who bequeathed me with his vintage Philadelphia Eagles Randall Cunningham jersey before migrating to La Grande Manzana—is no different. You can check out his NFL preview, including playoff predictions, here.

Onward with my predictions!

NFC East

Washington, 9-7
Like my homie, J-Oro, I think the NFC will be the stronger conference. (I have NFC teams winning 135 of 256 regular season games. But then again, the Baltimore Ravens, a team few people thought would win it all when they struggled to get past the Colts in last year’s Wild Card round, won the Super Bowl.) I think any of these four teams could take the division; it’s practically a coin flip (though you know a Jerry Jones/Jason Garrett/Tony Romo-led team will fuck it up somehow), so I’m hardly confident of this pick. I think RGIII will be back enough. Their running game will be good and their defense will be stout enough to win enough games to win this division.

New York Giants, 8-8:
I was big on this team last year but I think their pass rush will continue to be in hibernation compared to their Super Bowl-winning seasons. Above average offense (if Cruz can stay on the field), lukewarm defense, and I think it might be time for their management to consider moving past Coughlin; his coaching ethic and way of motivating his team just might be getting stale by this point.

Philadelphia, 8-8:
The one true wild card in this division. Their offense might be top 5 or 10, but their defense will probably be pisspoor. BUT, if they have a top 5 offense and a middle of the pack defense, I think they could grab the NFC East. Lot of things have to turn out quite well for that to happen, but after seeing how well their offense has played under Chip Kelly’s system in the preseason I think there’s reason for optimism if you’re an Eagles fan.

Dallas, 7-9:
Will the defense significantly improve with Monte “Mr. Tampa 2” Kiffin (and spawner of a mediocre-overrated coaching talent!) calling the shots? Will this be Jason Garrett’s last season coaching the Boys from Big D? I think it will be. This team lacks the inner resolve and tenacity to grind out victories on a consistent basis, which stems from top to the bottom.

NFC South

Atlanta, 11-5
I think their offensive firepower will be enough to keep them atop this division only because the Saints defense is worse. Osi Umenyiora won’t be able to make up for John Abraham’s departure, and their defense still lacks playmakers. With no fault to Matty Ice, I smell a loss in their first playoff game this year.

New Orleans: 10-6 (Wild Card)
With Sean Payton’s return, I think the Saints will compete with the Dirty Birds for the division title. Drew Brees’ numbers should be better than last year, and I think their defense will play with more tenacity under Payton’s leadership and Rob Ryan calling the shots versus the putz who was their Defensive Coordinator last year.

Tampa Bay: 8-8
Unlike my homeboy J-Oro, I am not on the Buccaneer bandwagon; yes, they have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, especially on offense, but they had a horrendous pass defense. Trading for Darrelle Revis should help to solve some of that, but that’s assuming he will have not lost much of a step since tearing his 28-year-old ACL. If Josh Freeman bounces back and has a strong season and the pass defense can significantly improve, this team could surprise and make the playoffs.

Carolina: 5-11
Unless that defense significantly improves and if Cam Newton has another so-so season, I think Ron Rivera is toast in Carolina. I just don’t think they have enough weapons in the passing game to bring the best out in Newton (and why don’t they design some run-option plays for Newton? He could be a beast in such an offense.)

NFC North

Green Bay, 12-4 (First Round bye)
I think the Packer offense will continue to roll without Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. Despite coming in at #6 in the NFL’s Top 100 players of 2013, Aaron Rodgers is the machine at QB that makes their receiving corps look so good. If you ask me, he’s the best quarterback in the game right now (though Colin Kaepernick might unseat him by the end of this year). Unless Dom Capers’ schemes and motivational skills have burnt out in his stint in Cheesehead Land, I think the defense should be improved over last year; avoiding injuries and being healthy at the right time of the year will be key. I was wrong last year, picking Green Bay to roll through the playoffs and beat the Broncos in the Super Bowl (I believe I’m still ballsy in picking them, come playoff time, since I correctly picked them to win it all as a #6 seed when the 2011 playoffs began), but I think they should be a legit contender this year.

Detroit, 9-7
They should have a top 10 offense. Megatron will continue his dominion, and I think their defensive unit will bounce back enough from a disappointing 2012 campaign but fall short of a wild card birth.

Chicago, 6-10
I don’t believe in Jay Cutler; like Justin said in his upcoming NFL season preview, Cutler is the modern-day Jeff George—a guy with a laser arm, strong physical ability, but completely lacking when it comes to leadership. Having grown up in the Bay Area and seen Marc Trestman’s prolific 49er offenses (but he also had Steve Young in his prime), I think it will be interesting to see how he might improve Cutler’s abilities. The offense should be a bit better, but I’m not sure if he’s the answer for them at coach. I can see this team imploding, especially on defense, without strong leadership from Lovie Smith and Hall of Fame-bound middle linebacker, Brian Urlacher.

Minnesota, 6-10
With the exception of Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen and his mullet, I can see them being a boring, average team on both sides of the ball. Poor Peterson might be the NFL equivalent of Tracy McGrady.

NFC West

San Francisco 12-4 (First Round bye)
The best division in football! It’s gonna be a season-long brawl between the Niners and Seahawks for the title with the Rams stepping in, from time to time, to make it a donnybrock. Provided their Smiths—especially Justin—stay healthy, their defense should be lights out despite the departure of Dashon Goldson and Chris Culliver’s season-ending injury. (This is assuming Patrick Willis will come back fine from his broken hand.) The big questions lie on offense: who will step up for Michael Crabtree’s absence? Will he be able to come back strong by the end of the season? Will defenses have caught up to their read-option and Pistol offense formations? How much improvement will the Turlock Tornado show? In the NFC—barring any disastrous injuries—I think it will be between the Niners, Packers, and Seahawks—and the Niners play both teams within the first two weeks of the season. I’m a Raiders fan but I am foaming at the mouth, Beast-Mode style, to see those two games.



Seattle, 11-5 (Wild Card)
The Niners and Seahawks are the two best teams in the NFL. Not sure which one is better; if healthy, I think the Niners offense has the edge (I think I’d take Greg Roman over just about any OC in the league), but Seattle made some defensive upgrades in the offseasaon—and Vic Fangio seemed like a boring, limited coordinator when Justin Smith went down late last year so Dan Quinn might have an edge at DC though we have no case history from last year to inspect. I’m eager to see how these moves panned out; we will definitely find out by the end of the season. And I think one of these two teams will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

St. Louis, 9-7
This is a make-or-break year for Sam Bradford. Except the loss of Steven Jackson, Bradford should have the best offensive weapons he’s ever had. As for their defense, Jeff Fisher has already made his mark on this team. They’re a disciplined, tenacious bunch; they will be tough to beat at home. I think they will be the toughest team to finish third in their division. An injury to Kaepernick or Russell Wilson opens this division up to the Rams.

Arizona, 5-11
Can’t say I’m well versed on the Cards, but I have a feeling their defense will sorely miss Ray Horton. The offense should be improved with some fresh blood (Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer; not sold on Mendenhall being a difference maker, though) but I think their defense is going to tank.

AFC East

New England, 11-5
The slow decline continues as Tom Brady gets older and older and that defense continues to stink. But still, it’s the AFC East, and the Patriots win this division with Tom Brady and Belichick running the show.

Miami, 7-9
I wouldn’t be surprised if they do better, even finish 9-7 for wild card contention. Tannehill needs to improve; Mike Wallace needs to be worth the money they’re paying him, and their defense needs to be solid for that to happen.

Buffalo, 6-10
I think Doug Marrone can be a good hire for the Bills, but their starting quarterback is still Kevin Kolb. I think the key will be their defense. They certainly have talent on that side of the ball, but can they play like a dynamic, cohesive unit?

New York Jets, 3-13
Geno Smith just got named their starting quarterback. I could almost feel sorry for Jets fans but I’ve been a Raiders fan ever since they moved back to Oakland so they can go fuck themselves. Rex Ryan’s defense will keep them in games, but that offense is going to be downright awful to watch. Our military prisons could play game tape of their offense as a new form of torture.

AFC South

Houston, 11-5 (First Round bye)
Their defense should be stout with the return of Brian Cushing and JJ Watt, who has become one of my favorite football players. The guy’s an animal! And he appears to be a hard-working, down-to-earth young man with heart. Their offense should be about as good as it was last year, which is the problem. They’re good but not elite; think the ceiling has been reached on their offensive personnel and Kubiak’s schemes.



Indianapolis, 7-9
I think Andrew Luck is legit; the addition of Ahmad Bradshaw and a stronger offensive line should keep them in games, but that defensive is still atrocious. They will come back down to artificial turf this year.

Tennessee, 5-11
A motivated Chris Johnson is about the only stupendous thing the Titans have going. I think Munchak will be canned after this season. And they will draft or chase a free agent QB to supplant Jake Locker.

Jacksonville, 3-13
The Jaguars will compete with the Jets and Raiders for worst team in the league. I think they might take it with Blaine Gabbert starting at quarterback. I can see their owner signing Tebow just to sell tickets because god knows no other team will sign him at QB.

AFC North

Pittsburgh, 10-6
With a healthy offensive line, Big Ben at quarterback, and Mike Tomlin at head coach I have a hard time imagining the Steelers missing the playoffs two years in a row. Polamalu’s health, as always, is the difference in their zone blitzing defensive scheme.

Cincinnati, 9-7 (Wild Card)
They should have a fierce pass rush with Geno Atkins leading the way. Their defense should be solid but that offense will still be lacking without any elite player to pair with A.J. Green. By the end of this year, their fan base will still be debating if the Red Rifle is the answer at quarterback—and I don’t think Dalton is.

Baltimore, 9-7
With Pitta out for the season and Boldin traded to the Niners, who will Flacco throw to on third downs? And though they’re younger and more athletic than their Ray-Ray led defense of last year, can their new-look defense meld together quickly to win this division? I think it’s possible but I think they’ll struggle early on and finish strong and be one of those teams other AFC playoff teams will be grateful not to meet in the playoffs.

Cleveland, 7-9
Barring significant injuries, I think Cleveland’s defense can be pretty good. The question is can their offense, led by Brandon Wheeden be competent enough to be average enough to squeak out close games?

AFC West

Denver, 12-4 (First Round bye)
Unless Peyton Manning gets injured, I think the Broncos will be the class of the AFC. The Von Miller suspension should hurt them, early on, and Champ Bailey isn’t getting any younger either (but they got Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie). But still, they should have no trouble winning this feeble division.

Kansas City, 9-7 (Wild Card)
Though I’m an admirer of Alex Smith, I still think he’s an average quarterback with an above-average football mind. He’ll be a great offensive coordinator or quarterback coach someday but he’ll do enough to manage the KC offense against average to lackluster defenses but he’ll continue to struggle against stout defenses especially if Jamaal Charles doesn’t average around 100 yards rushing per game in Andy Reid’s offense.

San Diego, 7-9
I think the Bolts will flourish with Norv Turner finally fucking gone and a bright, adaptable head coach like Mike McCoy. I think their offense can improve; Gates needs a late career rebirth ala Tony Gonzalez; Le’Ron McClain needs to pave the way for Ryan Mathews, and Philip Rivers needs to revert back to elite form. I think it can happen. Not sure about their defense and special teams, though.

Oakland, 4-12
I’ll cover my pitiful team in more detail in another post. Boo hoo hoo! I will say this: I predict Dennis Allen will go with Matt Flynn as the starter for the season opener against Indianapolis. And once it becomes ever more painfully apparent that our offense lacks playmakers after about six games, Pryor’s number will be called more until he becomes the starter. And then we’ll draft a quarterback with our high pick. Mark it.

Super Bowl Prediction:
Fuck it, Niners over Steelers. What a ridiculous pick! Will Polamolu even stay upright for more than eight games this season? I have a hard time imagining the Patriots or Texans making it to the Super Bowl though Houston could if their defense is lights out and if they have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. And the Broncos, without an elite defense, will blow it in the playoffs, somehow.

That said, if the last few seasons has taught me anything it’s that two preseason favorites rarely if ever make it to The Big Dance, so some unexpected team needs to make it. At least, this is my faulty logic. I think either San Francisco or Seattle will represent the NFC which means the surprise team needs to come from the AFC (and Niners fans better hope the Ravens don’t make the playoffs this year!)