Let’s Fucking Do This! (or My 2017-2018 NBA Playoff Preview)

After a long-ass season, we are finally here at the playoffs. Sweet baby Jeebus.

Last year, at the onset of the playoffs, FiveThirtyEight.com gave the Warriors—who would go on the statistically greatest NBA playoff run ever with a 16-1 record—a 59% likelihood of winning the title. This year, they’re giving my Warriors a 4% chance of winning the title, which is beyond fucking laughable:



Vegas—specifically Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook—has laid down more realistic odds for the Warriors repeating as champions. The Warriors are currently 6-5 favorites to win the title with the Rockets close behind at 5-4 odds. The Cavs rightly come in at third with 8-1 odds.

Before I put down my predictions for each playoff series, I would like to talk at length about my beloved Dubs.


I think the Larry O’Brien gods are still shining upon them. In facing the Spurs in the first round without Steph, I think we got our most favorable opponent possible. And if we emerge from the first round—which we totally should—our path to the Western Conference Finals is more manageable in facing either the Trailblazers or the Pelicans than having to go through either the Thunder or Jazz.

A few months back, our local beat writer extraordinaire, Marcus Thompson II, rightly pointed out in The Athletic that the 2017-2018 Warriors don’t have the edge we played with in the past three seasons. Just think about the drop-off in Draymond’s defensive intensity. If we’re talking about our defensive effort, my boy, Draymond is our bellwether. This season, Houston is resoundingly playing with that edge, especially after getting eliminated by us twice in the past three seasons. I think that’s one of the reasons why the Rockets have been the better team this season, thus far.

But I have faith that we’re about to get that chip on our shoulder again. KD, Iggy, Shaun Livingston and David West are cagey, veteran players who returned because they are all too aware of the legacy that can be attained if we win a back-to-back title, if we win a third championship in four seasons. Now that it’s the playoffs, they know we are 16 wins from grasping basketball immortality. And I think our championship-level defense will return. We’re about to find out in the first 12 minutes of Game 1 against the Spurs.

And if we pull off that title, this will be our greatest achievement from the past four seasons. Even our biggest haters will not be able to deny how impressive this championship would be, given all the injuries and mental and physical toll we’ve gone through in the past four seasons. With 16 more victories, the word “dynasty” will have to be mentioned whenever people talk about this team in the present or years from now.

If we face the Rockets in the Western Conference Finals, we will have to play our very best to beat them. Nevertheless, I’m still not sure they would be the greatest foe we have vanquished. No offense meant to the 2017-2018 Rockets—who better win a championship this year because I don’t think they will be as dominant as they have been this year because they have two many key role players who will start to be on the wrong side of 32—but coming back from a 3-1 deficit against the 2016-2017 Oklahoma City Thunder is going to probably still be the most impressive victory we will have.

Can you tell I can’t wait for the playoffs to start?

Okay, here’s some random playoff predictions. I would humbly like to note that last year I totally nailed my NBA Finals prediction of the Warriors stomping the Cavs in 5 before the playoffs started, so let’s see how fucking wrong (or right) I may be this time around:

Most Likely Upset in the First Round: New Orleans over Portland
Most Likely Upset in the Second Round: Oklahoma City over Houston
Western Conference Finals matchup: Warriors vs. Rockets (and we’re taking them in 6!)
Eastern Conference Finals matchup: Raptors vs. Sixers
NBA Finals prediction: Warriors in 6 over the Raptors

Eastern Conference

(1) Toronto vs. (8) Washington
Season series tied 2-2

The Toronto Raptors have an infamous history of blowing Game 1s whether if they open on the road or at home, where they have one of the best home-court advantages in the league. Last year I thought the Raptors might finally get over that, but I think this is the year they’ll crack past that. They have the best bench in the NBA and DeMar DeRozen has raised his play to an All-NBA level.

The Wizards have demonstrated a recent history of playing well in the big lights of the playoffs, but their team chemistry is all fucked up as his been demonstrated on Twitter with John Wall’s feud with fellow teammate Marcin Gortat. The Wiz have the top-shelf talent to compete in this series and in any series in the East, but their offense has been stagnate and predictable with Wall’s late season return. There’s a chance they’ll figure it out in this series, but I don’t think they will.

Toronto in 5

(2) Boston vs. (7) Milwaukee
Season series tied 2-2

This series pits the most overachieving team in the Eastern Conference against perhaps the most underachieving team in the conference. With significant injuries to Gordon Hayward, Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart and others, the Celtics have no fucking business being the 2nd seed in their conference, but they have Brad Stevens and his coaching staff; Stevens’s work this season with his young team will likely nab him the Coach of the Year award.

Of the four series in the east, I think it’s easy to see this one being the most likely to go seven games. Giannis is going to be a playoff beast for a second year in the row, but it’s hard to see the Bucks string enough consistency from their other key players to take this series. Plus, former Buck Greg Monroe is going to have some serious revenge motivation for this series. In the final seven games of the season, he closed strong by averaging 13.5 points, 7.7 assists and an impressive 4.2 assists in just 23 minutes.

Boston in 6

(3) Philadelphia vs. (6) Miami
Season series tied 2-2

I’ve never been to Philadelphia, and I have little interest in ever visiting, but I’m pretty damn sure most Philly fans are starting to feel pretty okay about The Process nowadays, right? Sam Hinkie, who had at least one video game created to honor his ruthless yet brilliant roster-building strategy, should feel like a proud papa for having a big hand in putting together arguably the most talented roster in the Eastern Conference. With Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons they have the most transcendent Eastern Conference talents outside of Cleveland.

But the Heat sport two dark lords of coaching in Erik Spoelstra and Pat Riley backing him in the palm-tree shadows of Miami. The Heat finished the season with the 4th best scoring defense and a ridiculously balanced scoring attack with 8 active players averaging double figures. With D-Wade’s veteran presence back in the fold, I think Miami has the talent, depth and wits to pull off two victories in this series. If there’s a team that can exploit Ben Simmons’s pisspoor jump shot and an underwhelming 56% FT percentage, I think Spoelstra and Riley can hatch up a plan.

Philadelphia in 6

(4) Cleveland vs. (5) Indiana
Indiana won season series 3-1

So Indiana—the biggest surprise team this season—won the season series against the Cavs, but all four contests were before Cleveland shed themselves of half of their roster in early February. In their three victories, though, Indiana shot well from 3-point land. With the Cavs piece-of-shit defense there’s little reason to believe that the Pacers can’t produce similar results in the playoffs. But with Kevin Love back in action, and LeBron having one of his finest seasons ever—and I would dare say his most impressive season in his epic career (for the record, despite The Brow’s late season heroics, I think LeBron easily deserves to finish 2nd to Harden in the MVP race)—the Cavs are an absolute leviathan on offense rolling into the playoffs. I don’t think the Pacers will be able to (I can’t contain myself) keep pace.

Cleveland in 5

Western Conference

(1) Houston vs. (8) Minnesota
Houston swept season series 4-0

Congrats to the Timberwolves on making the playoffs for the first time in 14 years! Enjoy it because sadly this playoff run will be fleeting because the Rockets are going to mince them. With Jimmy Butler back, namely his ability to will a team to win, I think they’ll win a game, but that’s it. High scoring series but I’ll be surprised if most of these games will be truly competitive.

Houston in 5

(2) Golden State vs. (7) San Antonio
Golden State won season series 3-1

The Warriors dodged two bullets in the opening round by avoiding the Jazz and the Thunder. Without Steph in the lineup, I don’t think we would have emerged from the first round if we had faced Utah. As for OKC, if Paul George continues to shoot as well as he has in the final two regular season games, I’m not sure if we would have survived a first-round showdown with them.

But I have no such fears with the San Antonio Spurs, the franchise we have long admired and strived to be (with a mix of the 1980s Showtime Lakers). To put it simply, they are deficient in talent to beat us in a seven-game series, even without our franchise player, the one and only Chef Curry. Lead by my boy, Gregg Popovich—the greatest basketball coach I’ve seen—the Spurs will be prepared and well-disciplined enough to win at least one game. The thing is, at this point, I still don’t trust the Warriors enough to really fucking show up for this series. Specifically, their championship-caliber defense. The Spurs will test us. They will defend us well; they usually do. We will have to snap out of our season-long malaise in order to put this proud, veteran team away, but I can still see us playing one sloppy, turnover-ridden game we should win but won’t.

Best case scenario: Warriors win in 5. But I think losing two is more likely.

Golden State in 6

(3) Portland vs. (6) New Orleans
Season series tied 2-2

I haven’t seen these two teams face off in the regular season, but I know Portland’s defense is vastly and improbably improved over last season. The Brow has been a revelation this season. Rajon Rondo’s playmaking at the point guard position has allowed Jrue Holiday to play excellently at the two-spot, which is why he’s had his best season ever. (He actually earned the big contract he signed in the offseason, which is something I think no one predicted.) This should be a fun, high-scoring series. Each game should be close and hard fought. (Portland has the 5th best team defense while the Pelicans, even without Boogie for a chunk of the season, finished tied for 3rd in scoring.) It’s tempting to take the Pelicans since they easily have the best player on either side, but I think Portland’s superior backcourt of Videogame Dame and C.J. McCollum (who is such a natural, silky scorer) will give them the advantage.

Portland in 6

(4) Oklahoma City vs. (5) Utah
OKC won season series 3-1

Goddamn I say! If I had to bet, I think this is going to be the best series in the opening round—Utah’s top-ranked scoring defense and scorching 29-6 record since January 24th against The Great Stat Hogger, PG-13, Steven Adams and some other scrubs. Sure, OKC won the season series 3-1, but all four contests were played in the first two full months of the season when neither team got their shit together, especially the Jazz.

Like Colin Cowherd said in his opening round predictions (I would like to note I rarely ever listen to him), Utah’s Quin Snyder is the Western Conference equivalent of Brad Stevens. He is an outstanding coach, and the trade with the Cavs further strengthened them since they got Jae Crowder, a versatile defender who can occasionally make teams pay if they leave him open behind the three-point line. Without a doubt, I think the Jazz will be the superiorly coached and more cohesive team in this matchup.

But, the Thunder arguably have the two best players in this series in Westbrook (a.k.a. The Great Stat Hogger) and Paul George. That shit matters in the playoffs when rotations shrink. And Steven Adams is no fucking slouch either. But after those three, what players can Billy Donovan rely on in a seven-game series? Melo can have one or two decent to good shooting nights, but smart teams—and the Jazz are a cagey, disciplined team—are going to mercilessly hunt him on the defensive end in the playoffs. I think it’s going to get ugly for him.

Maybe it’s wishful on my part, but I think OKC with home court advantage is going to emerge to face the Rockets in the second round.

OKC in 7