2016-2017 NBA Playoff Opening Round Predictions!

Fuck yeah! The 2016-2017 NBA Playoffs are finally ready to begin!

I am an unabashed Warriors fan, but I must say, the beginning of these playoffs feels like déjà vu of the 2014 NBA Playoffs when it felt destined that they would culminate with a Finals rematch between the Heat and Spurs. This year, of course, it feels like the Warriors and Cavs will square off again for the championship. And like the Spurs, it feels inevitable that the Warriors will avenge their collapse in last year’s Finals.

At the onset of last year's playoffs, FiveThirtyEight.com gave the Warriors a 42% likelihood of winning the title. The Cavs were given a 9% chance. We know how that turned out. (FiveThirtyEight also predicted an easy Clinton victory in the election—and we know how that turned out…)

For what it’s worth, this year FiveThirtyEight’s playoff forecast believes the Warriors, with their robust +11.6 point differential have a 59% likelihood of winning the title. The Cavs and their putrid defense come in with just a 2% chance of winning, less than the other top three seeds in the East. Yeeouch:

Just after they traded for Kyle Korver, I couldn’t fathom anyone in the Eastern Conference knocking off the Cavs. Conversely, before KD’s knee injury, I couldn’t imagine anyone in the West defeating a healthy Warriors squad in a seven-game series. Shit has changed a bit since, but now I feel far more confident that the Dubs will make it to the Finals whereas I am much more uncertain about the Cavs. As ESPN’s Marc Stein pointed out, the 2016-2017 Cavs are 22nd in defensive efficiency and will attempt to be the first team outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency to win it all since the 2000-01 Lakers. And speaking of the Lakers, in March the only team with a worse defensive efficiency than the Cavaliers were the Lakers—who were trying to fucking tank for the draft! LeQueen may talk all he wants about not caring what playoff seeding his teams finish with, but wrapping up the last full month of the regular season with the second worst defensive rating is not a tried and true route to winning a championship. (Did I mention the Cavs finished with a worst road record (3-9) against Western Conference teams than the mighty Brooklyn Nets or Orlando Magic?)

Okay, enough about the Cavs, who will be a lottery team in two seasons. Here’s some random (and bold!) playoff predictions before I put down my predictions for each opening round matchup:


Bold prediction!—Total 2016-2017 playoff losses for the Golden State Warriors: 3
Most Likely Upset in the First Round: Thunder over Rockets in 6
Most Likely Upset in the Second Round: Raptors over Cavs in 6
Western Conference Finals matchup: Warriors vs. Spurs (fucking finally meeting in the playoffs since 2013!)
Eastern Conference Finals matchup: Cavs vs. Wizards
NBA Finals prediction: Warriors over Cavs in 5

Eastern Conference

(1) Boston vs. (8) Chicago
Season series tied 2-2

Sure, Chicago finished strong with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games, but those wins came against the likes of the Nets, Magic, 76ers, Pelicans, Hawks, Cavs and Bucks. It’s impressive compared to the rest of their season, but I’m not that impressed.

However, if Playoff Rondo is still a real thing, and if Mirotic can get the hot hand he displayed in March when he averaged nearly 16 ppg shooting 41% from deep, Boston’s in for some first-round pain. Despite all the rangy wings the Celtics have, they don’t have a wing who can match Jimmy Butler’s two-way game. A few things have to go right for Chicago to make this a series—which can happen—but Brad Stevens is a brilliant coach. Plus, Chicago’s recent avalanche of wins have come with them scoring well over their 102.9 points per game average, and I just don’t see how that continually happens in a seven-game series against Boston.

Boston in 5

(2) Cleveland vs. (7) Indiana
Cleveland leads the season series 3-1

Of all the teams with a legit to outside chance of winning the championship, I think Cleveland is the team that most desperately needs to put away their first-round opponent in five games or less. They need to gain some momentum to propel them in the second round against a potential opponent like the Raptors. Indiana isn’t much of a cohesive team, so they should put them away in four or five games, but god I would just laugh and love it if the Pacers can manage to push this to six.

Cleveland in 5

(3) Toronto vs. (6) Milwaukee
Toronto leads series 3-1

The 22-year-old Greek Freak should win Most Improved Player, but even his all-world game probably won’t be enough to make this a competitive series. With their stellar backcourt and solid starting five, Toronto simply has too much talent to lose this series. It would be devastating if they lost, but I think their core players have reached a peak age of relative youth and experience that should make them a tough out in the East. Of all the Eastern Conference first-round series, I will be rooting hardest for them to win because the one series I really want to see in the conference semifinals is the Raptors against the Cavs; I think they’re the one team in the East who can knock off the defending champs—or push them to seven, which would please me terribly.

Toronto in 5

(4) Washington vs. (5) Atlanta
Washington leads season series 3-1

Like the Raptors, I think the Wizards have too much of a talent advantage to lose this series. Atlanta sports a top-5 defense, which can keep them competitive night in and night out. Scott Brooks’s Thunder teams always played stout defense, so over the course of this series, I think they’ll figure out how to defend Atlanta’s already hapless offense despite their recent defensive woes. And if Wall and Beal get the Wizards running, this series could be over quick.

Washington in 5


Western Conference

(1) Golden State vs. (8) Portland
Golden State swept season series 4-0

Before Jusuf Nurkic’s injury, I was a little fearful that this first-round matchup would be a bit taxing for the Warriors because that motherfucker can ball. Sadly (for basketball fans), he will be out for this series—and there goes Portland’s best chance of winning a game. They still might, but I don’t think they will.

(And if Blazers GM Neil Olshey has any cold-hearted sense, this should be the last time we see Dame and CJ McCollum together as a starting playoff backcourt in Stumptown.)

Golden State in 4

(2) San Antonio vs. (7) Memphis
Season series tied 2-2

Goddammit, this opening playoff series again! Each game should be competitive, but this will likely be the most unwatchable first-round series in the West. I think this series will go at least five.

San Antonio in 6

(3) Houston vs. (6) Oklahoma City
Houston leads season series 3-1

I agree with David Thorpe when he spoke on Zach Lowe’s podcast that the most enticing thing about this series might be watching Russell Westbrook match up against pesky Patrick Beverly, who knocked him out of the playoffs a few years back. It can get fun and snippy between those two.

Since starting 31-10, Houston has been an unimpressive 23-16, so they’re not rolling into the playoffs at peak form. Although Houston won the season series, right now, I don’t think Houston is a significantly better team than OKC, despite the difference in seeding.

In the end, Houston should have a much stronger bench to support their superstar MVP candidate. They have better outside shooting and individual playmakers in Harden, Eric Gordon and Lou Williams, which gives them the edge in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see if Russ can pop off for another epic 50-point performance. Unless Harden plays out of his fucking mind in this series, which will be hard against stellar rangy-defender Andre Roberson, I think Russ all but has the MVP wrapped up right now.

Houston in 6

(4) Utah vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers
Clippers leads the season series 3-1

Last year, to my sadistic chagrin, the Clippers didn’t make it out of the first round, which saddened me because I was looking forward to witnessing a bludgeoning in the second round to my Dubs.

It may be a different year, but I’m picking the Clits again this year! This should be the most competitive first-round matchup in the West. God I hope so. With the exception of Rockets/Thunder, the other series look like yawns. Barring untimely playoff injury, I think CP3, Mr. Overrated (a.k.a. Blake Griffin) and DeAndre will win this series—and it will be their last playoff series victory before that trio gets blown up in the offseason (like they should have last season).

Clippers in 6