Holy shit, the final game in the NBA’s new play-in tournament just went down at Chase Center, conjuring painful memories of another elimination game loss at home for my beloved Warriors, but now the NBA playoffs are upon us. This time around, I’m stealing a page from Zach Lowe’s excellent first-round playoff breakdown and grouping these series predictions by my level of interest starting with the series I am most excited about followed by the ones I don’t really give a shit about.
So let’s go.
Fire!
3. Milwaukee Bucks vs. 6. Miami Heat
This is the opening round series to watch. Last season—though there is no online proof to substantiate it—I called the upset and predicted the Heat would knock off the Bucks in the 2nd round. My reasoning was fairly simple: the Heat were a veteran team with a great coach and they were 2nd in the league last season in 3-point shooting accuracy. I thought that could be a deadly combination against a Mike Budenholzer-coached team that is designed to deter buckets in the paint while daring teams to beat them from deep. I also believed the Bucks were too reliant on Giannis Antetokounmpo’s limited offensive abilities.
For the Bucks, their entire 2020 offseason and in-season retooling is ALL ABOUT this moment. Few teams have as much pressure on them in these playoffs than Budenholzer and his squad so those stakes alone make this an intense matchup. In last year’s NBA playoff bubble, the Heat eliminated them in five games, so can the Bucks with two-way stalwart Jrue Holiday have enough now to get past the Heat? The Heat have struggled all season to consistently win, but in the past 25 games they have sported the 5th best offense in the league, which has been their primary problem this season. For a second year in a row, they appear to be coming together at the most opportune time.
In the end, I still don’t trust Giannis—the Bucks unquestioned leader and superstar player—to make key free throws and consistently hit jump shots in the 4th quarter or crunch time, and I doubt the Bucks will change up their midcourt attack enough to get better looks for their other star and role players.
Prediction: Heat in 7
Pass the Popcorn I’m Tuning In
3. Denver Nuggets vs. 6. Portland Trailblazers
Jokić vs. Dame. Jokić pitted up against his former teammate, Jusuf Nurkić (a.k.a. the Bosnian Bear), who the Nuggets passed on and traded because they chose Jokić instead. Michael Porter Jr.’s second playoff go-around and his first real chance to take a superstar leap on the biggest stage.
Before Jamal Murray went down with a devastating ACL injury, the Nuggets were rolling. Years of careful team-building and brilliant midseason trades for Aaron Gordon and JaVale McGee had them positioned for a legit shot at winning the title. There’s no way I can see them making that run now, but they’re still a gritty, talented team with probable and deserving 2020-2021 MVP.
On the other side, the Blazers finished with the second best offensive rating this season. With Nurkić and CJ McCollum back in the lineup and joined by the rugged and athletic Norman Powell, the Blazers have a lot of juice on offense and their defense has been improved down the stretch. They’re a low seed with no one outside of Rip City picking them as a title contender, but Terry Stotts and the team have a lot of pressure to not flame out early this postseason. If they do, it could translate to some major moves in the offseason especially since Dame is undoubtedly entering the prime of his playing career.
This should be a tightly-contested series coming down to the center matchup and if Porter Jr. can become an unstoppable flamethrower.
Prediction: Blazers in 6
2. Phoenix Suns vs. 7. Los Angeles Lakers
Everyone knew if Chris Paul stayed healthy that the Suns would be vastly improved over last season, but by finishing 2nd in the Western Conference I think they exceeded even their highest expectations. But, their defense since the All-Star break has been substandard and I think this is a bad matchup for them. Less than two weeks ago, without LeBron in the lineup, Anthony Davis exploded for 42 points and 12 rebounds at home against the Suns who were at full strength. Deandre Ayton is the only legitimate big on the Suns roster and they’re going to have to heavily lean on the youngster, playing in his first postseason, to contend against a massive veteran Lakers frontcourt featuring LeBron, AD, Andre Drummond, Montrezl Harrell, Marc Gasol, and Markieff Morris.
Ayton’s stat line in that 123-110 loss on May 9th: 6 pts and 6 rebounds in 33 minutes. The Lakers had 14 offensive rebounds to 3 from the Suns.
Good luck with that.
The Suns only hope for winning this series is for LeBron to be seriously compromised or injured with the high ankle sprain he’s nursing.
Prediction: Lakers in 6
I’ll Keep An Eye on These Series
4. New York Knicks vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks
I haven’t watched either team play one minute this season, but it has the potential to go down as one of the best series in the first round.
The Tom Thibodeau Knicks are a hustling, defensive-minded team led by Julius Randle (taking an all-NBA turn!) while the Hawks are a more talented team, especially on offense. This should be an excellent matchup in terms of style. I’m picking the grittier team that finished the season allowing the least points scored per game at 104.7.
Prediction: Knicks in 7
4. Los Angeles Clippers vs. 5. Dallas Mavericks
The Clippers clearly overmatch the Mavs with talent so this shouldn’t be much of a series even though the Mavs have the best player in Luka Dončić. I am curious to see if they come out and play with intensity and tenacity instead of the we-just-have-to-walk-on-the-court-and-we-win(-though-we-haven’t-won-a-goddamn-thing) arrogance they carried last year before they spiraled into the biggest choke job in NBA playoff history. On paper, they made some moves around the margins, like adding Nicolas Batum, Luke Kennard, and Rajon “Playoff” Rondo and excising the remnants of their plucky 2018-2019 roster, to change their team DNA. With Tyronn Lue’s stewardship, is it enough to metamorphisize them into a championship team? This series should begin to answer that question.
Prediction: Clippers in 6
I Don’t Give a Shit
1. Utah Jazz vs. 8. Memphis Grizzlies
The Jazz beat the Grizz three times within the span of six days in late March without Donovan Mitchell in their last matchup in Memphis. Ja Morant scored 32 and 36 points in the two of those losses, so he can get cooking against the Jazz, but the talent disparity is too great. The Grizzlies are tenacious, as I just watched them outplay my Warriors so I’ll be charitable and give them one win to squeak out, but that’s it.
Prediction: Jazz in 5
1. Philadelphia 76ers vs. 8. Washington Wizards
I just have no interest in either team. Despite their elite defense and top seed in the weaker conference, I’m with Logan Murdock and think the Sixers are a fake contender, and the Wizards are a conglomeration of poorly-coached garbage outside of Russ, Beal, and Rui Hachimura (with occasional splashy playmaking cameos from Ish Smith). The only thing I’d be interested in seeing is highlights of Russell Westbrook turning the ball over at least six times in a game while putting up a 5 for 25 shooting line as he’s harassed all over the court by the league’s most disruptive wing defender, Matisse Thybulle, until he barks and whines at the refs or his teammates like the perennial loser he is.
Prediction: Sixers in 5
2. Brooklyn Nets vs. 7. Boston Celtics
The short-handed Celtics looked abysmal in their play-in game against the Wizards. They’re first-round roadkill for the Nets. Jayson Tatum could average 40 points in this series and they’re still losing every game.
As far as I’m concerned, the one intriguing aspect of this series is the Nets’ Big Three; they’re finally healthy and have an opportunity to play together with some stakes on the line. How will they look? If they can keep healthy and dominate and play average defense, the entire league will be on notice. It will be like a leviathan emerging from the East River.
Prediction: Nets in 4
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