Miss Sally (or My First Snow(wo)man)

Last Wednesday, I built my first snowman ever.

In seven weeks I will turn thirty-seven.

Before I came out to Wyoming for my three-week winter residency, I figured I would have ample opportunities to build a snowman or two or few. I knew it might not be as easy as it seems in movies and TV, so I was wise enough to ask a few of my coworkers who hailed from cold-weather regions for any tips on building one. The one tip I received—and it proved to be quite helpful—was to begin by simply pushing a snowball along the snow.

Shit I’ve Learned About Wyoming (Thus far)

February 5th, late Friday evening, the tiny United passenger plane I rode from Denver, CO landed on the small airport runway in Laramie, WY. It was my first time in The Equality or Cowboy State, only my second time in the Mountain Standard Zone. (My heart still aches for you, New Mexico!) The following morning, I contracted the services of the good people at Snowy Range Taxi to take me west from Laramie past Saratoga, the nearest town from the artist camp that I will call home for most of this month.

On my two-hour cab ride to the Brush Creek Ranch, and from conversations with locals and others who have passed through Wyoming before, I’ve learned a thing or two about the 44th state admitted into the American Union:

Fred

from http://swattingflies.weebly.com/

Since I arrived at the Brush Creek Ranch five days ago, I’ve been surprised to find horseflies buzzing in and outside of my writing studio. All around us, the fields are covered in at least two feet of snow. Thin icicles still hang and drip droplets of water from the slanted roofs. Winter in Wyoming doesn’t strike me as a hospitable place for horseflies. But they are here in most of our artist studios.

Last night, while our communal dinner was wrapping up, a horsefly flew onto my pant leg. It rested on my thigh for a long while. He was a fairly big fly. While the other artists conversed, I snuck glances at it. I was unsure if it was a fly that was ready to die like the one I had seen the day before, lying wings down, legs lethargically moving to and fro on one of the snow-covered walkways. Without noticing it, the fly eventually flew off my leg and landed in the bowl I had used to sip a pea soup. Its six legs dangled in the air as it lay in the bowl. I took my napkin and held it over its legs. It clung on and unglued himself from the soupy remnants coating the bottom of the bowl.

Four of us artists remained at the table. I stared down at the fly while they conversed. I saw the fly flap his wings futilely a few times. Then, it took its front legs and seemingly wiped their tips a few times before it reached up and over to clean the top of his head. He did this, over and over again. I began to smile as I watched. Usually, flies this close to me would zip away. This was the first time I could remember seeing a fly use its legs for a specific purpose.

Beverly, a visual artist with a fantastic mischievous grin, noticed me and the fly.

Just smush him, she said.

Clown Without Pity’s 2016 Super Bowl Pick

Boy was I wrong about that AFC Championship Game! But I don’t think I'm whiffing on my Super Bowl pick.

But before I get to that, let’s talk about the Super Bowl festivities in San Francisco, you know, that hilly liberal bastion 45 miles from Santa Clara—that uninspiring sprawl of suburbia that will actually host the game. Since last week, San Francisco’s Embarcadero and downtown area have been teeming with cops, military servicemen, and guys dressed for a Will Smith action film

Citizen! Feel like relaxing at Yerba Buena Gardens? 

Go right ahead! Just ignore my assault rife! This is freedom.

So dear NFL: thank you for viscerally reminding us how militaristic your sport is. Boy was George Carlin spot on about that:

And yesterday, my sweetheart, Maria, who works in a building situated near “Super Bowl City,” told me she saw the Budweiser Clydesdale horses stomping through downtown pulling their iconic carriage. A slew of motorcycle cops—she estimated about 30—roared through the streets to clear the way for them so San Francisco’s police force was basically utilized for an in-person commercial for Buttwiper. Just fucking great to hear how our civic funds are divvied.

But onto my pick: I think it’s going to be Carolina over Denver. On Ross Tucker’s podcast, NFL Film guru Greg Cosell said the key matchup of the game is Denver’s run defense versus Carolina’s rushing attack, and I totally agree. It’s simple as this: if Denver can slow down the Panther’s rushing attack and continually force Cam into long 3^rd down passes, we’ll have a game on our hands. If not, Denver’s going to get bowled over again in the Super Bowl though it probably won’t be as bad as the 55-10 drumming to the 49ers, or the recent 43-8 ass-whopping to the Seahawks that I, as a Raider fan, absolutely savored.  

For me, the true wild card of the game’s outcome is Wade Phillips. Homeboy’s probably the best, if not one of the top-three defensive coordinators in the game. (I think Phillips and Vic Fangio are the best. Rex Ryan used to be up there.) If he can draw up another masterful plan to slow down an offense that couldn’t be more different than New England’s offense, Denver has a chance to win a low-scoring game. But even then, somehow or another, I think Old Man Sheriff and Denver’s lackluster offense will have to score 20 points against a ferocious Carolina defense. Like Bill Barnwell in his Super Bowl preview and prediction, I just don’t see that happening. In too many ways, I think this game is a bad, bad matchup for Denver.

Cue "I Shot the Sheriff"

Clown Without Pity's 2015-2016 Championship Game Picks

Picture says it all: who brings the real fire? Who's got the true killer instinct?

AFC Championship: New England at Denver 

So in my 2015-2016 playoff predictions I correctly picked this championship matchup, but after watching the games this past weekend, I’m changing my pick: I’m picking the Pats.

My rationale (which has a funny way of going out the window when the two teams actually take the field): despite the home field advantage, Denver’s defense doesn’t impress me. Before the playoffs began I was well aware that this is no great defense, not like the 2013 Seahawks. But last week, without Antonio Brown, without Le'Veon Bell, without his capable backup, DeAngelo Williams, a banged-up Big Ben and their 3^rd RB on the depth chart piled up 396 yards on the Burros. It took a crucial 4^th quarter fumble for Denver to escape with a win.

With LT Sebastian Vollmer back in the fold, I think Brady and McDaniels will attack Denver through the air with a thousand-cuts, 40-50 pass attempts approach. I think their offense will put up more than 20 points—and that should be enough to put down the Caballitos.

This may be the last time Brady and Manning’s teams face off. (Here's a link to ESPN's Ultimate Brady-Manning Quiz; I scored 8 out of 10!) Right now, Manning may have greater regular season stats but I’d still take Brady any day, especially an elimination game. Like my buddy J-Oro wrote in his conference championship game picks, Brady is this generation's Joe Montana. From my vantage, Manning has always seemed like a more emotionally brittle QB than Brady; too many elements have to be rolling on offense for him to succeed and when they don’t he’s far more likely to implode. Just go back to the second play of Super Bowl 48. In retrospect, Manning and—subsequently—his team, never psychologically recovered from that safety. Put Brady in that situation and I think Denver would still be in the game because he turns to pissed-off anger when his back’s against the wall instead of cowering like Manning tends to when facing a stout defense in pressured situations.

NFC Championship: Arizona at Carolina

Boy was I wrong about that Seattle vs. Carolina game! Obviously, Carolina’s offensive and defensive lines really impressed me in the first half of that last game. On the flip side, Carson Palmer played like a guy who was 0-2 in the playoffs and desperate to not lose (which is different than winning) a game at home in the Divisional Round. He looked really shaky in the 2^nd half of their game against Green Bay.

I’m taking Carolina for this game:

• Their home crowd was deafening last week.
• I trust Cam more than Palmer in a high-pressure game.
• And football is almost always won in the trenches. Carolina should put together a more complete game this week.

However, the Cards best chance to pull off the upset is for their defensive line to have a monster game. If they can shut down Carolina’s running game, the game shifts to Carolina’s receivers vs. the Card’s secondary, and that should be a very favorable matchup for Arizona. At some point or another, you figure Carolina's lack of talent at that skill position will catch up to them...

Cam throwing some dumbshit-choad's 12th Man flag: I wholeheartedly approve

2015-2016 NFL Playoff Predictions

One of the kicks from following sports is making predictions, right? Or maybe I just like being horrendously wrong with my sports predictions? If so, this blog is a testament to that.

Anyway, after what felt like the most unpredictable, topsy-turviest NFL season yet, we have arrived to the playoffs. In both conferences, the 4^th seeds—not surprisingly—appear to be the weakest teams while the 6^th seeds look like the most dangerous teams playing in the opening round. The NFL should take the NBA’s lead and change their playoff bracketing to eliminate mediocre to piss-poor division winners from automatically qualifying for the playoffs and instead reward teams based on their records. It just seems more practical, which is why the League of Denial probably won’t do it.

But enough pish posh! Here are my playoff predictions.

AFC

Kansas City (5) at Houston (4)

Kansas City has been one of the hotter teams down the stretch with a nasty defense coupled with a just-effective-enough offense that doesn’t turn the ball over much. (Kansas City is a distant second behind the Panthers in Turnover Differential with a +14.) Though they’re on the road, I’m taking the Chiefs.

Pittsburgh (6) at Cincinnati (3)

If you’re one of the few persons on this planet who have followed my past inane NFL playoff prediction posts, (hi Sarah!) it shouldn’t surprise you to see that I am enamored, yet again, with the Steelers as a dark horse candidate out of the AFC. Last year, before the playoffs began, I picked them to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl—and then they lost their opening round game. (Thank god I don’t bet on this shit!)

I hope Andy Dalton plays and wins his first playoff game (and one for Marvin Lewis), but I think Pittsburgh will prevail.

Kansas City (5) at New England (2)

Despite having Gronk back from injury, New England’s offense has sputtered in the past few weeks. That’s cause for alarm, especially against a team with the 3^rd ranked scoring defense in the NFL. This could be a boring, low-scoring showdown, but New England should have WR Julian Edelman and RT Sebastian Vollmer back for this game. If the past few years have taught us anything, it’s this: it’s not wise to bet against Brady if Gronkowski’s on the field. I’m taking the Pats.

Pittsburgh (6) at Denver (1)

Who will Kubiak start at QB, Manning or Osweiler? What could end up being a more important question is: will DeAngelo Williams be able to effectively play? Pittsburgh’s defense will have to create turnovers—or hope Kubiak starts Manning and pray he is still the early-season version of himself (9 TDs to 17 INTs). Big Ben can’t afford to toss an interception or two like he often has this season. Though I have no confidence in this pick, I’ll take Denver at home with their dominant defense.

AFC Championship

New England (2) at Denver (1)

A few weeks ago, after Seattle manhandled the Vikings in Minnesota, I texted my buddy, Jeff, and boldly predicted a rematch of Super Bowl 48:

And so, I’m picking Denver’s ferocious defense and Osweiler(?) (or Manning?) over Supreme Leader Belichick and Kylo Tom.

NFC

Green Bay (5) at Washington (4)

Last year, Seattle needed an epic (and I mean epic) choke job from Green Bay to return to the Super Bowl. About a year later, Green Bay looks like one of the top three candidates for one-and-done in the playoffs. The Derogatory-Term-Towards-Native-Americans have been strong at home this season: 6-2. I’m taking Washington.

Seattle (6) at Minnesota (3)

I’m no Vikings fan, but Minnesota had two opportunities to make a big-statement victory at home this season: against Green Bay on November 22^nd and the aforementioned blowout loss to Seattle on December 6. Other than depth chart changes in the Seattle backfield, I don’t feel like much has changed between either team since that 38-7 loss. I think Seattle will convincingly win. Bridgewater and Minnesota is still a little too green to win a game like this against a bonafide playoff-tested champion.

Washington (4) at Arizona (2)

Throughout this season, Arizona has consistently flattened bad to mediocre teams. With two weeks rest, I think Arians will have the Cards ready to steamroll the Derogatory-Term-Towards-Native-Americans. 

Seattle (6) at Carolina (1)

Awwwww, shit! This might be the best matchup we’ll get in the entire playoffs. This game might be the true Super Bowl. You Niners fans might remember when Jim Harbaugh was your coach and a quarterback named Colin Kaepernick led the offense into Carolina. I have never been to Bank of America Stadium in Charlottte, NC, but the Niners were not intimidated to play there in the playoffs. I highly doubt Pete Carroll’s Seahawks will either. Plus, I still think the Panthers might be closer to the team that lost to Atlanta two weeks ago than a 15-1 juggernaut, and Russell Wilson has been the MVP in the last quarter of the season. I’m taking Seattle.

NFC Championship

Seattle (6) at Arizona (2)

Awwwww, shit! This might be the best matchup we’ll get in the entire playoffs! This game might be the true Super Bowl! Wait, didn’t I just say that a paragraph ago? Oh wait, I did.

This is a toss-up, but I have somewhat followed Carson Palmer’s career over the years. After all, Hue Jackson gave up a ransom to pluck him from the Bengals and then proceeded to play like a has-been for my Raiders before morphing into a viable MVP candidate with Bruce Arians (who is a top-5, probably top-3 coach in the NFL). It’s purely intuition, but I can’t help but feel like Palmer is still due some devastating bad luck this season. That’s why I’m picking the Seahawks to win this one.

Super Bowl

Denver vs. Seattle

It won’t be a blowout, and should be a much closer contest than Super Bowl 48, but I think Seattle’s going to win again. A vanquished, 40-year-old Peyton Manning will ask George Lucas where Darth Vader and Luke Skywalker got their robotic forearms and try to come back for one last season but I’ve said it before and I’m sticking to it—and I have nothing against him—but Peyton, the greatest regular season quarterback ever, will never win another Super Bowl. (If you haven’t figured it out by now, I also hate being wrong.)

And the Seahawks and their annoying 12^th Man Fans will celebrate a Super Bowl victory in Jed York’s $1.3 billion dollar Money Trap in Santa Clara.