Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Thoughts on the NBA Restart


On March 11, 2020, everything went to shit: seconds before tip-off between the Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder, a member of the Thunder’s medical staff sprinted onto the court and spoke to the officials. The game was eventually postponed. The Jazz’s All-Star center, Rudy Gobert, had tested positive for Covid-19, which prompted the league to “suspend” its season. For many of us ‘Muricans, the NBA’s shutdown is when we undoubtedly knew shit got real with this pandemic.

Although it was four and a half months ago, it feels like that date was at least half a year ago. This pandemic and our country’s subsequent unfuckingconceivably horrific response has a way of warping our collective sense of time. So much can change in a matter of days, and something two weeks out viscerally feels much longer than that because so many bad turns can and have happened in such a minute time frame. Since early March, so much has happened in this country and I’m not even going to try to begin to talk about that mad whirlwind because once I get going I’m not sure where I should conceivably end.

Instead, for one of the few times since early March, I’m going to try to focus my attention on something that isn’t related to SARS-CoV-2, the Black Lives Matters movement, police brutality, and the death spiral of the American empire we are witnessing in real time. Although this pandemic and the correlated destruction resulting from American hypercapitalism is far, far, far from over, I want to share some of my thoughts on the NBA’s 2019-2020 restart.

How bad has shit gotten? Weeks ago, when Russell Westbrook—my #2 most-hated NBA player (check out my top-5 list)—announced that he had tested positive for the novel coronavirus, my immediate reaction was not some form of twisted elation, but dread and disappointment. Like many other basketball (or even casual sports) fans, I am—despite all the odds—hoping that the NBA can somehow or another pull this off. Having one of the league’s brightest stars test positive for Covid-19 was definitely not a good thing for us carrying this dumb hope. And then, on July 14th, I actually felt happy to see James Harden—#1 on my list of most hated NBA players—arrive at the NBA "bubble" at the Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando, FL.



That’s how bad shit has gotten. At this juncture, I am so desperate for this human experiment to succeed that I am willing to put my grudges aside and root for every goddamn player involved.

Like The Washington Post’s National NBA Writer, Ben Golliver, I feel like it would be “a miracle” if the NBA and its players can actually complete the remainder of this season and eventually crown an NBA champion. It wouldn’t be on the level of successfully sending a man into space, but pulling this off feels like it would be on some rung below that, in terms of human achievements. With Florida’s astronomical Covid case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths beginning to pile up, it feels like the NBA is trying to erect an elaborate ice palace in the midst of a fucking inferno.

Thusly, I’m not going to be foolish and stupidly hopeful and put down predictions for proverbial bridges we may never reach in this carefully-planned NBA restart. Instead, I’m going to try to focus on the present—which is all we really ever have, pandemic or not—and we’ll see how far we get. I’m interested in talking about who I think the Winners and Losers are from this long, unprecedented layoff, and highlight six teams I am most fascinated to follow in this restart.

So let’s go.



Biggest Losers of the Pandemic Shutdown:

Los Angeles Lakers
Before the 2019-2020 season began, in true knucklehead fashion, I boldly predicted that the Lakers wouldn’t even make the playoffs. It’s not hard to admit that I was completely wrong, but it is difficult to acknowledge that the Lakers were humming along and were one of the few teams who had a clear chance to win the championship. If the NBA bubble can evade being punctured, they still have a very good chance of hoisting the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy, but their margin for error—at least on paper—is even smaller now. Avery Bradley chose to pass on rejoining his team and Rajon Rondo is presumably out for at least 6 more weeks with a broken thumb. Rondo was a minus for them this season, but his cagey veteran presence will assuredly be missed, especially in the playoffs. Is guard Alex Caruso a legitimate plus/minus contributor against NBA starters versus bench players he typically faces? Can he step up and fill those minutes in the backcourt and continue to outperform? Can Kentavius Caldwell-Pope, who shot nearly 40% in over 25 minutes per game, continue his improved shooting?

Brooklyn Nets
Presently, the Nets sit a half-game ahead of the Orlando Magic for the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference, but who the fuck is on this active roster besides Caris LeVert, Joe Harris, and Jarrett Allen? Spencer Dinwiddie and DeAndre Jordan tested positive for the Rona during the shutdown and will not return to action, and veterans Taurean Prince and Wilson Chandler will also sit out the remainder of the season. The Nets are so desperate for warm bodies that they signed 40-year-old Jamal Crawford to fill one of their roster spots. The Wizards have a miniscule chance of catching the Nets and capturing one of the final playoff seeds, but who wants to see this team play?

New Orleans Pelicans(?)
From January 26, 2020 until their last game played on March 8th, the Pelicans weren’t exactly clicking on all cylinders and laying waste to their opposition, but they did tally an 11-7 record down the stretch. Zion Williamson’s introduction to their young, talented roster seemed to gel them together; he sparked their offense (especially their points in the paint) and helped to establish the rest of the team’s pecking order and define their roles. Based on their performance and easy remaining schedule, FiveThirtyEight and other NBA analysts predicted they would catch the stumbling Grizzlies and capture the 8th seed in the West had the regular season played out as originally scheduled. The Pelicans still have a decent shot of making the playoffs, but outright capturing that 8th seed in a true regular season was their best shot instead of playing there way in via an 8th vs 9th seed play-in tournament.

Biggest Winners of the Pandemic Shutdown:

Portland Trailblazers
With season-long injuries to Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkić, the Blazers were so thin in frontcourt depth that they signed Carmelo Anthony to try to save their season—and he subsequently played much better than many projected. But with the pandemic shutdown, Collins and Nurkić—coming off of a devastating leg injury—are healthy again and ready to contribute. On last year’s team, Nurkić was clearly their 3rd best player. Collins has the versatility and athleticism to be an ideal big man to pair with their dynamic backcourt.

In other words, Portland’s ceiling has been significantly raised with these two talented big men back in action. It’s asking a lot, but if this team can quickly gel and maximize its replenished roster and manage to capture the 8th seed in the West, they can be a tough out for the Lakers in the opening round of the playoffs.  

Boston Celtics
The break from action has afforded time for banged-up players to heal. For the Celtics, that means Kemba Walker has had time to allow his knee to heal and Robert Williams’ (a.k.a. Time Lord) hip issues may have been resolved. With his impact on their offense—116 points scored per 100 possessions versus 107 when he sits, per The Ringer—Walker is critical to the Celtics’ chances of advancing into the playoffs. Time Lord is a role player, but one who can be a key contributor in small, switchy lineups. If both of them are close to 100%, their talent and versatility can be a difference maker in the playoffs.

With this highly unusual restart in which teams will be asked to shake off four months of playing rust in short time, it makes sense that young teams like the Celtics may have a competitive physical advantage over teams dependent on aging players. If they land the right seed and advance past the first round and get a favorable matchup in the second round, the Celtics could very well be a dark horse in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

New Orleans Pelicans(?)
Zion was simply not 100% physically well when he debuted and played during the regular season. Nevertheless, he was an impactful, dominant player. If the long layoff has afforded him time to rest and heal the knee he injured in preseason, he might be an even more dominant player, which should be a big plus for the Pels.

Teams I am Most Fascinated to Watch:




Dallas Mavericks
During the regular season, the Mavs had a historically great offense with a 116.7 offensive efficiency rating, which would have been the highest of all time. I am curious to see if they can keep up that astounding efficiency.

In Luka Dončić, the Mavs already have a megastar player with supreme confidence, craftiness, and skills we rarely ever see. He is an absolute killer and a guy you can give the ball to in a close game and have justifiable confidence that he will put his team over the top. In the playoffs, having the best player on the court can oftentimes be the difference in a series.

If the Mavericks can avoid playing the Clippers in the first round, they have a legitimate chance of pulling an upset (at least in terms of seeding) and make it to the second round. If the NBA makes it that far (that’s me, corralling myself back), and if they’re matched up against the Lakers, I think they could be a handful to knock off. I’m big on Rick Carlisle as a coach and this team seems to have great chemistry. In this wild, completely unfamiliar playing scenario for the league, such intangibles can be a big difference between who advances and who goes home to continue to binge-watch Netflix and Hulu. Dončić is already one of my absolute favorite players to watch, and the Mavericks—at this point—is my dark horse team to make it to the Western Conference Finals.

New Orleans Pelicans
With Zion in the mix, the Pelicans are straight up one of the most exciting teams to watch. Zion’s presence seems to have maximized Lonzo Ball’s talents, and Brandon Ingram is rightly being considered for the Most Improved Player Award. They will probably not crack it into the playoffs, but I’m excited to see them back in action.

Philadelphia 76ers
Call me thickheaded, but I’m not quite ready to give up on this team. Before the season began, I picked them to come out of the East to face the Clippers in the Finals. I think that’s unlikely, but this team’s so fucking bizarre and I’m too curious to see how they will play on a neutral court a hop and skip and jump away from the “Most Magical Place on Earth.” The Sixers finished the season with the best home record in the entire league at 29-2—and they were dominating teams at home, which gives one the impression that they do have the talent to win against anyone.

The problem is, GM Elton Brand hasn’t built a roster to maximize the talents of either Joel Embiid or Ben Simmons. But can the starting lineup shake-up of hot-shooting Shake Milton (see what I did there?) at point guard and Simmons switched to power forward actually work? I’m doubtful, but our collective reality has become so unbelievably fucking absurd and illogical that I’m not going to be surprised if Brett Brown and the Sixers have figured shit out during this pandemic.

Portland Trailblazers
Recently, I talked with my good friend and fellow Warriors fan, Justin, about NBA teams we should bandwagon-root for. Given our mutual love for the beautiful city of Oakland and their proud native son, Damian Lillard, the Blazers scored high on those charts for both of us. (Personally, when he’s cooking, I’m more infatuated with CJ McCollum’s smooth, flowing offensive game.) With Nurkić and Collins—who I generally dislike—back in the fold, I am very curious to see if this team can approach its hypothetical ceiling, regardless if they make the playoffs or not.



Milwaukee Bucks
If they’re healthy and at full strength, I think the Bucks should be the title favorites over the Clippers or Lakers. Before the season was temporarily suspended, they were on pace to win 67 games. Having closely followed my beloved Warriors, I now clearly know that teams that win that many games with a double-digit point differential historically achieve great success in the playoffs. I am eager to see if they can pick up where they left off and cap this season with a title that has evaded them since 1971.

Miami Heat
In the East, I think the Raptors are the team most likely to give the Bucks a serious challenge, but Miami’s the other team I think that can potentially knock them off if all goes well for them. My logic is:
  • They have an elite coach.
  • They have a talented, willful player in Jimmy Butler who can get a bucket in crunch time in the playoffs when the offense is faltering.
  • With the exception of Kawhi Leonard, Big Bad Bam Adebayo (please feel free to steal that nickname from me as I’m given credit) may be the most uniquely equipped player in the NBA who can defend Giannis Antetokounmpo.
  • Pat Riley is a bad motherfucker when it comes to constructing championship-caliber rosters. The Heat have an interesting concoction of young talented players (Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn, and Bam), veterans (Jae Crowder, Kelly Olynyk, and Butler) and wily-basketball-Yoda veterans (Udonis Haslem, Goran Dragić, and my boy, Andre Iguodala).
Although it’s unlikely that the 2019-2020 Heat will be this year’s unlikely team to win it all, I do think they have the potential to go deep into the playoffs (as long as the bubble holds up!)

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