2020-2021 NBA Season Predictions

Ready or not, the NBA, its writers, analysts, and fans are in for a tumultuous ride. The league is about to embark on its craziest season ever since…last season’s. In 2020-2021, the NBA is attempting to play the most games of any American professional sports league during this historic pandemic. At this present juncture—because it’s the only view we’re afforded—it seems like a bold, defiant move on the part of the league and its players, but money fucking talks. If the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has taught us anything in this country, it is that.  

Last season, LeBron James led a third different franchise to a championship, triumphing over his former team, the upstart Miami Heat. On December 30th, he will turn 36. He has climbed to 9th on the list of All-Time Minutes Played Leaders, and is expected to soon pass Kobe Bryant. In his storied career, he has yet to miss a single playoff game, which is probably his most extraordinary accomplishment, especially since he has gone to the NBA Finals a whopping 10 times, including 9 out of the past 10 Finals. At this point, I humbly believe there is no question that James is one of the greatest athletes ever. Can he continue to defy peerless Father Time? Can he lift the Lakers to confetti-laden glory again?

The novel coronavirus will undoubtedly have a huge effect on this season. Players, coaches, and their families will be infected. Vaccines are literally on the horizon, and its not inconceivable to believe that an NBA team—or multiple teams, owned by billionaires—will secretly procure vaccines for their teams to give them a competitive edge throughout the season.

It’s going to be wild.

Here are my best predictions for the top-8 playoff seeds in each conference, starting with the most exciting, talented, and interesting one of the two.

Western Conference

Top Half
Denver Nuggets
Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers
Portland Trail Blazers

How wild is it to think of what could’ve happened if the Utah Jazz had simply finished off the Denver Nuggets in their opening round series last season? What if Mike Conley’s last-second shot in Game 7 went down?

For starters, people wouldn’t be so high on the Nuggets. Then, the Jazz would probably be more highly ranked coming into this season, especially with Bojan Bogdanović returning to their lineup. And what if the Jazz subsequently lost to the Clippers in the second round? Doc Rivers would have probably been retained, and maybe they don’t make some of the moves they made this past offseason?

But the Nuggets prevailed. With a young core including Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. and a decent supporting cast, they are positioned to remain in the top half of the Western Conference. Losing Jerami Grant is a blow, but signing JaMychal Green should take away some of that sting.

In the second round of last season’s bubble playoffs, the Clippers had the worst meltdown I’ve ever witnessed from an NBA team. Their stars, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George (a.k.a. Pandemic P) scored a combined total of zero (0!) points in the 4th quarter of their decisive Game 7 loss to the Nuggets—and Clippers management subsequently awarded George with a four-year, $190 million dollar extension this offseason. This team is still very talented, but last year they taught us again that team chemistry is an unquantifiable variable that is critical to a team’s success—and I don’t think this team really did much to address their piss-poor leadership that contributed to this fatal issue. They’re too talented to not make the playoffs, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if they’re a middle-of-the-pack playoff seed floundering from a lack of chemistry and cohesion.

The Lakers played Game 6 of the Finals about two months ago. I’m assuming LeBron will be in cruise control for much of the first quarter of this upcoming regular season, laying back and testing his new teammates to see what they bring to the table, and how he can use them to take this team back to the top. With the additions of Montrezl Harrell, Dennis Schröder, and Marc Gasol, the Lakers have arguably improved their championship roster, which is scary for the rest of the league. If they’re healthy, if LeBron can continue to play at last season’s level, and if the Lakers are still a top defensive team, I’m inclined to put the Lakers on a separate tier from every other team since they have two top-5 NBA players. Losing Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo should hurt, but, at this juncture, they’re the clear title favorites.

On paper, the Trail Blazers have given Damian “Put Some Respect on My Fucking Name” Lillard their deepest roster during his eight-year tenure with the team. Like many other NBA writers and analysts, I think Portland had one of the best offseasons. Robert Covington should be the best fit at small forward to complement Lillard and CJ McCollum; during the Rockets short playoff run last year, I thought he was their best player in a few of their games against the Thunder in the opening round. Signing Melo is good for continuity and team chemistry. (I can’t believe I just wrote that about Carmelo Anthony.) Taking a flyer on Harry Giles III and signing Derrick Jones Jr. from the Miami Heat and their winning culture should be good additions, and they even brought back Rodney Hood for depth. Best-case scenario, I think they could finish as high as 3rd in the Western Conference, and they should be a lock to snatch one of the top-6 automatic playoff seeds barring an absolute implosion. With Dame turning 30, the Blazer’s are doing the right thing and going for it because when will they ever get such a talented player and elite leader who wants to stay in a small market like Portland?

Middlers
Dallas Mavericks
Utah Jazz

If healthy, I think Luka Dončić is going to basically equate to an automatic playoff birth for whatever team he plays for. He’s an incredible player who is only 21 years of age and should only hone his craft and leadership skills.

This season, by trading Seth Curry for Josh Richardson, the Mavs should have better perimeter defense, especially with Dorian Finney-Smith coming off the bench. In recent years, I think people have forgotten that Rick Carlisle used to be known as a defensive-minded coach. This season, I think their defense will get a little bit better and their offense will still be explosive, which should equate to a few more wins to bump them up in the Western Conference playoff pecking order.

Utah is running it back this season. They’re one of the few teams that is retaining their entire starting lineup from last season. With more familiarity playing with one another, led by a solid coaching staff, the Jazz should continue to compete at a high level this season. Twenty-four-year-old Donovan Mitchell took another step forward in last season’s epic opening-round duel with Jamal Murray and the Nuggets, becoming one of only four players in NBA history to score 50 points twice in one series, so the Jazz should be a pretty solid team this season. If healthy, best-case scenario, they can feasibly finish in the top half of the Western Conference.

Low-Hanging Seeds
Golden State Warriors
Phoenix Suns

Before Klay Thompson suffered a horrendous Achilles tendon tear, I thought the Warriors could be among the handful of teams with legit championship aspirations going into this season. I think that’s out the window now.

But like most Dubs fans, I’m still super-stoked about this season. After last season, how could we not be? We should compete for a playoff spot. Best-case scenario, I think we can snag one of the 4-8 seeds. Realistically, at this point, I think it’s likely we’ll be competing for one of the 6-8 seeds.

Judging from the final two preseason games, Steph Curry is ready to cook this season. For the Warriors to hit their 2020-2021 ceiling, he needs to stay very healthy and revert back to his MVP form. Draymond needs to be fully engaged and play at a DPOY level, which I think he can. Our defense needs to be top-10 in defensive efficiency. We need to be one of the top-5 transition scoring teams in the league. James Wiseman needs to play and offensively contribute like JaVale McGee circa 2017-2018, and either Kelly Oubre Jr. or Andrew Wiggins needs to take a step and play their best basketball. After that, I’d say our second unit needs to be improved—not drastically improved, but noticeably better than last year’s season-long shitshow from our bench. A lot of things have to go right, but I think these are all attainable. This Warriors team has the most athleticism and length since our first Steph-led title team in 2015. I’m much higher on Oubre than Wiggins pushing their potential and fitting in with this team. No matter where we ultimately finish, I’m just excited to see what this team can be. After last season, I’m just grateful to be competitive.

As for the Suns, they should be one of the top-10 NBA teams to watch. If CP3 and Deandre Ayton can stay healthy, this team should light up the scoreboard. Phoenix is one of the teams I am most excited to see in action. Going into this season, the immediate question is: was their 8-0 run in last year’s playoff bubble a fluke? If it wasn’t, I think they can compete for one of the mid-tier playoff seeds.

Eastern Conference

Top Half
Milwaukee Bucks
Brooklyn Nets
Miami Heat
Boston Celtics

This season should be do-or-die time for Coach Bud in Milwaukee. With the addition of Jrue Holiday, the Bucks should be an improved team in the playoffs. For me, this season, I will be most curious to see what wrinkles Giannis Antetokounmpo brings to his offensive game—because he fucking better. Judging from their last two playoff series losses, I have no faith that Giannis can hit wide-open 3s when an elite defense is daring him to shoot it in a tight game in the 4th quarter. To me, after watching him and the Bucks struggle to close out games against the Heat, it’s so obvious that he needs to develop a reliable midrange shot instead. That alone could deter teams from packing a three-man wall in the paint to block him from attacking the rim. In addition, Giannis desperately needs a go-to move to fall back on to pick up points when the weight of a playoff game is upon them in the closing minutes. Either one of those tools can greatly benefit the Bucks in playoff crunch time.

Amongst the best Eastern Conference teams, the Brooklyn Nets are probably the biggest wild card coming into this season. The last time we saw him in a Warriors uniform, Kevin Durant was one of the top-3 basketball players on this planet. If he’s close to that level, and if Kyrie Irving—who has officially cracked my top-5 most hated NBA players (an updated post to come)—can stay healthy, this team should be pretty damn good. I can see them being the equivalent of last season’s Los Angeles Clippers: a team with abundant talent, questionable team chemistry, but a great regular season record nonetheless. Unless they’re not done making big moves, this team should be able to score a bunch of points, but who are they stopping? A lackluster defense and suboptimal chemistry should do them in come playoff time, just like last season’s Clippers.

Last season, I became smitten with the Miami Heat in the playoff bubble. They play basketball the right way. At best, their pass-happy offense and individual playmaking reminded me of the 2013-2014 San Antonio Spurs, which is still one of my all-time favorite basketball teams. With Bam Adebayo serving as a play-making center with outstanding versatility on the defensive end, Pat Riley has adapted to the modern game and built yet another title-contending team within the ever-changing NBA landscape. This season, I will be most curious to watch the development of Miami’s young players, namely Bam, Tyler Herro, and Duncan Robinson (who posted the greatest catch-and-shoot season of all time last season):

The Celtics didn’t appear to improve their roster in the offseason, letting injury-prone Gordon Hayward walk while bringing on LeBron James’ former lap dog and personal rebounder, Tristan Thompson. Last season, with Kemba, Brown, Tatum, Smart, and Hayward on the floor against the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, it felt like they were the more talented team. It felt like they should have won that series, but they didn’t. Unless Tatum takes a giant step forward as an offensive machine, or if Jaylen Brown becomes a perennial All-NBA wing, I get a sense the Celtics basically hit their ceiling last season with that core. Thompson should be an upgrade if they want to put him at center in smaller lineups like the 2016 Cavs did when they knocked off the Warriors, and I like Boston’s defensive versatility with Grant Williams on the court, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough to push this team into legitimate title contention. And the status of Kemba Walker’s knee is distressing. Last regular season, their offense thrived when he was on court and wilted when he sat on the bench.

Bottom Half
Toronto Raptors
Philadelphia 76ers
Indiana Pacers
Washington Wizards

At this point, neither of these four teams has a Hail Mary-type chance of competing for an NBA championship, so who really fucking cares about them other than their respective fan bases?

Despite more roster defections, the Raptors are too gritty, too smart, too well-coached and just talented enough to be a lock for a playoff seed in the Eastern Conference. The Sixers are clearly the most intriguing of these teams, especially since Ben Simmons in a trade package for James Harden is now officially true. Between their on-court product and basketball management, you know something’s going to implode within that franchise. The Pacers are gonna pace despite their foolish decision to get rid of Nate McMillan. Of these teams, the Wizards should be the most fun to watch. With Russell Westbrook pairing up with Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans and Rui Hachimura complementing them, this team should put up a shitton of points. I trust them to grab one of the top-8 seeds more than the improved Atlanta Hawks or pedestrian Orlando Magic.