Oh sweet baby Jesus, after an eighty-two game regular season grind, the 2015-2016 NBA Playoffs commence this Saturday! For the second time in NBA history, this year’s playoffs will include two teams with over 65 wins. (During the 2008-2009 season the Cleveland Cavs entered the playoffs with 66 wins while Kobe’s Lakers had 65 regular season wins.) Those two teams—the San Antonio Spurs, and, in particular, the Golden State Warriors—are heavy favorites to win it all according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest NBA Predictions:
Prior to this season, 17 teams—including last year’s Warriors—have won 65 regular-season games. 14 of them have won the title, so it seems extremely likely (with apologies to Cavalier and Thunder fans) that either the Warriors or Spurs will hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy amidst a rain of champagne two months from now.
On paper, this year’s First Round doesn’t feature many enticing duels like the epic opening round of the 2013-2014 NBA Playoffs, but the second round could feature some excellent matchups.
Here’s my quick breakdown and predictions for the opening round:
Eastern Conference
(1) Cleveland vs. (8) Detroit
Detroit leads the season series 2-1
Although last year’s Cavs only notched 53 regular season victories, they seemed like a mightier playoff team than their 57-win-squad from this season. In terms of chemistry, they seem to lack the cohesiveness they had last season. They are still likely to emerge from the Eastern Conference but I find it hard to believe that they’ll overpower their opponents like they should, given their level of talent.
Stan Van Gundy’s young, upstart Pistons won the season series 2-1, but there last game, a victory in Cleveland, found LeBron and his team on the tail-end of a back-to-back. That’s my way of saying I don’t put much credence on Detroit’s regular season edge. I do, however, think they can beat the Cavs twice in this series; Van Gundy’s an excellent coach and Tyronn Lue is like a teenage boy with his first peach-fuzz mustache in comparison.
Cleveland in 6
(2) Toronto vs. (7) Indiana
Toronto leads the season series 3-1
In the prior two seasons, Dwane Casey and the Drake-Raptors have lost playoff series in which they were the higher seed. With playoff veterans like Paul George, George Hill, Frank Vogel and Larry Legend at the franchise helm, Indiana could become another upset victor over the Raptors, but I feel like this year, with an improved defense, Toronto will turn that corner. They better if Casey wants to keep his job.
Toronto in 6
(3) Miami vs. (6) Charlotte
Season series tied 2-2
If I were a gambling man, I’d put most of my chips on this series being the best one in the first round. Charlotte’s a young, super-athletic, up-and-coming team in the top half of the league in terms of defensive and offensive efficiency. Since the All-Star Break, the Hornets have a 19-8 record, which is best in the Eastern Conference. Miami is no slouch, either; they finished tied for 7th in Defensive Efficiency.
If Bosh was back, I’d say that would easily tilt the series in Miami’s favor, but he won’t be back so I think it’s a coin flip. In the end, though, I find it hard to bet in the playoffs against a team put together by Pat Riley, manned by Erik Spoelstra, and lead by Dwayne Wade. I still remember what that motherfucker did in the 2006 NBA Finals.
Miami in 7
(4) Atlanta vs. (5) Boston
Atlanta leads the season series 3-1
This should be a close, gritty series. Over the past few months, Atlanta’s defense has been straight hawkish. (I couldn’t resist.) They finished the season 2nd in Defensive Efficiency. A few weeks ago, the Celtics truly got on everyone’s radar when they became the first team in over a year to defeat the Warriors in a regular season game at Oracle Arena. With pint-sized Isaiah Thomas leading their attack—a man who is quickly rising the list of greatest players under 5’10 to ever play—Boston’s an exciting team to watch. With young, lock-down defenders like Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart, the Celtics can be hellacious on defense, too. This series will probably have its share of games ending with scores in the low-mid 90s.
Although Boston’s got a shinobi for a coach in Brad Stevens, I think the best player in this series is Atlanta’s Paul Millsap. In a seven-game series, having such a go-to player on both ends of the court can be the difference, and I think it gives Atlanta the slight edge.
Atlanta in 6
Western Conference
(1) Golden State vs. (8) Houston
Golden State leads the season series 3-0
A rematch from last year’s improbable Western Conference Finals, Golden State has improved from a 60-win team to a historic 70-win team, the first team in NBA history to play an entire season without losing consecutive games, while Houston gave Kevin McHale the boot early in the season to replace him with an interim coach who hasn’t done much to improve the team. In other words, over the past ten months since they last met in the playoffs, both teams’ trajectories have significantly altered. I’m not trying to be a brash Dubs fan, but the only question for this series is: will Houston win a game? I don’t think they will.
(And fuck James Harden.)
Golden State in 4
(2) San Antonio vs. (7) Memphis
San Antonio leads the season series 3-0
Memphis has trotted out an NBA record 28 different players this season. If it were any other year, Memphis’s Dave Joerger would likely win Coach of the Year and be given a hearty there-there hug for managing to get this injury-ravaged squad into the Western Conference playoffs.
That said, much like the Warriors/Sprockets series, the question is: will the Grizzlies win a game?
San Antonio in 4
(3) Oklahoma City vs. (6) Dallas
OKC leads the season series 4-0
An Oklahoma City vs. Portland series would have been much more fun. I could be wrong, and I hope I am because it looks like all these Western Conference opening matchups will be decidedly uncompetitive.
Bald Jim-Carrey-look-alike Rick Carlisle is a bad motherfucker of a basketball coach—top-three in my book. I hope he’ll manage to surprise us all by pushing a higher seed to the brink like they did to San Antonio in the opening round of the 2013-2014 NBA Playoffs. But I doubt it.
(4) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (5) Portland
Clippers leads the season series 3-1
In terms of watchability, this should be the most exciting first-round matchup out in the West. I hate the Clits—insufferable entitled fucking whiners—but they’ve been on a roll lately. With Griffin back in the fold, I think they’ll go Cobra Kai on Video Game Dame and Terry Stott’s Blazers. (My boy, Zach Lowe, has Stott deservingly listed third on his ballot for Coach of the Year.)
But then they’ll run into Daniel-san in the next round. God I can’t wait to wipe the hardwood floor with them.
Clippers in 5
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