Although I was tempted to write a panoramic prognostication for the NBA Playoffs before it kicked off, the opening round affirmed why I decided to refrain. Thus far, the story of the 2015-2016 NBA playoffs has been dominated by injuries. Key players like reigning MVP, Steph Curry, Avery Bradley, Blake Griffin and Chris Paul suffered significant injuries. Sure, I’m biased, being a Warriors fan, but I hope we’re done with all these major injuries. The opening round was brutal in terms of the talent that got shelved: Curry is going to repeat as MVP; Chris Paul would be #4 on my MVP ballot for this year. (Judging from other sportswriters and analysts picks, he’ll likely finish in the top five.) Bradley is one of the best two-way players in the game and when he’s healthy and properly motivated, I think Blake is a top-10 player in the NBA.
Brutal.
As the second round begins, the Spurs and Warriors remain heavy favorites to win it all according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest NBA Predictions:
 |
| as of 4/30/2016 |
Here’s my predictions for the Conference Semifinals:
Western Conference
(2) San Antonio vs. (3) Oklahoma City
Season series tied 2-2
Before today’s game I predicted that San Antonio would take this series in six games so I will not switch my pick despite this embarrassing blowout. Especially after what I saw tonight, I think Oklahoma City’s best case scenario is winning two games. They looked awful tonight (and I only saw the 2nd quarter). Their defense was pitiful. San Antonio looked like they were executing their offense just as they wanted and were getting quality shots three out of every four possessions while every Thunder bucket looked like a mortal struggle. It looked like no one could defend Aldridge. OKC fans rightly hope tonight’s game will be the worst one they play this entire postseason—but I have a feeling they have at least one other stinker against Popovich’s machine of offensive and defensive efficiency.
I love facts so let’s not forget one: San Antonio was 40-1 at home this year. Another fact: the only team that beat them at AT&T Center was a 73-9 team. Other than an injury befalling either Leonard or Aldridge, I just don’t see any scenario where Oklahoma City wins one in San Antonio. The lack of consistency and offensive execution that became a hallmark of the Scott Brooks era seems to have followed them under Billy Donovan’s direction. Once this series is over, I think it will become more clear that perhaps it wasn’t the coaching but the players, namely OKC’s dynamic, Hall-of-Fame-bound duo of Durant and Westbrook after all.
If Oklahoma City gets embarrassed again in this series, I think that might be the kick in the pantaloons The Durantula will need in order to push himself out of Oklahoma City. Now I’m with my homeboy, Justin, who predicted that this series will be Durant’s last one in Thunder uniform.
San Antonio in 6
(1) Golden State vs. (5) Portland
Golden State lead the season series 3-1
This series should be much less interesting.
With or without Curry, I think Golden State’s superior talent, depth and frontcourt advantage will carry them over the Trailblazers. Dame Lillard, a man we’re proud of here in Oakland, will likely have one Video Game Dame performance but it won’t be enough to carry his team—the youngest amongst playoff rosters—to win two against the Warriors. Put simply, as beat writer extraordinaire Tim Kawakami wrote in his series prediction, “If the Warriors play as crisply as they did in Games 4 and 5 to eliminate Houston in the last round, I don’t see them losing this series.”
Led by Money Green’s will, Klay’s cool shooting, Livingston’s sure hands and Iggy and Bogut’s cageyness, I think the Warriors will be locked in. They won’t get bored. It’s the playoffs, baby. Twelve more wins to notch in order to attain sports immortality.
Golden State in 5
Eastern Conference
(1) Cleveland vs. (4) Atlanta
Cleveland swept the season series 3-0
Thus far, the biggest whiff I had on my predictions for the opening round was Cleveland’s series against Detroit where I thought the Pistons would take two. Boy was I wrong (as was Jalen Rose)!
Although the Hawks’ defense impressed me in their closing game against the Celtics, that was a team missing its second best player and offensive threat. Cleveland is a different beast altogether.
I may have put too much weight on Detroit’s 2-1 season series advantage over the Cavs, but I can’t help but look at two of Cleveland’s three victories against the Hawks because they occurred in April. One was an overtime win in Atlanta and the other was a fifteen-point victory in Cleveland on April 11th. Those two late-season victories count for something in my book in determining how long this series will go. Despite having an excellent coach and a veteran team that plays with shades of offensive and defensive execution à la the San Antonio Spurs, I think Cleveland’s superior talent and rebounding advantage (Cleveland outrebounded Atlanta in all three regular season contests) will overmatch Atlanta.
Cleveland in 5
Even though this is posting before tomorrow’s two Eastern Conference elimination games, I will say this: god I hope Miami wins; I think they’re the only Eastern Conference team that has a chance of beating the Cavs, let alone challenging them. Although we’re only in Season Two of LeBron’s Cleveland Redux Tour, I think Dwayne Wade is to James what Shaq was to Kobe. And after his stellar performance in Games 5 and 6 against the Hornets, D-Wade showed he has plenty left in the tank. After watching the closing minutes of Game 6 in Charlotte, I couldn’t help but think that LeQueen would trade either Kyrie or K-Love in a second for his old teammate. Wade burns to win at a level equivalent to Kobe, Chris Paul or LeBron. From what I’ve seen, I can’t say the same for Irving or Love (and I think LeQueen's opaque passive-aggressive Tweets during the regular season alluded to this).
That may be a miscalculation that will haunt LeBron for a long time after he decided to leave Riley and Wade.
Because talent can only take you so far.
And you can't teach desire.
Updated May 3rd
Confession: before the playoffs begun, there were four series I profoundly hoped for and happen to think will happen:
• Oklahoma City vs. San Antonio (and we saw why last night)
• Golden State vs. San Antonio,
• a rematch of last year’s NBA Finals, and
• Cleveland vs. Miami,
Admittedly, I want Miami to win this series because I think they can challenge the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Final. Sans Chris Bosh, I think they can push the Cavs to the edge. As for this series, after watching the tail-ends of their respective first-round series, I think Miami has a significant edge in coaching, experience and mental toughness. In the playoffs, do-or-die time, all those three elements are crucial.
Led by point guard Kyle Lowry, Toronto’s offense straight choked in the end of Game 7 at home. They discombobulated (and I don’t say that word lightly). Toronto's collective terror was palpable. Casey's team was playing not to lose by starting their half-court sets with about five seconds left on the shot clock. Even though I don’t follow the Raptors, nor was I witness to their first-round losses the past two seasons, those last minutes said a lot to me. In crunch time, with the game on the line, I don’t trust their offense. I don’t trust Dwane Casey.
Similar to my reasoning in the opening round, I find it hard to bet against a talented team put together by Pat Riley, coached by Spoelstra and led by D-Wade. To boot, the Heat will have a couple of strong, rangy wing defenders to throw at Lowry and DeRozan. And Whiteside, like Zach Lowe aptly described him, is like a hardwood equivalent of Cerberus manning their basket. His height and length made Charlotte’s Kemba Walker hesitate on a number of occasions when he drove hard to the hole, and I can see him stymying Toronto’s guards as well—unless they somehow get him in foul trouble.
Miami in 6
No comments:
Post a Comment