Bring on Free Agency (My Thoughts on the Warriors offseason)

Game 7 aftermath

The Finals ended, and we lost. But I’m not ready to let go of basketball just yet, especially with free agency looming!

The celebratory smell of champagne and spilled tequila is probably still wafting in the visitor’s locker room at Oracle, but two delicious rumors have already reverberated around the Warriors. First, of course, is that Kevin Durant’s supposed interest in springing from Oklahoma City to join our team. ESPN’s Chris Broussard’s reporting that Durant’s decision is likely a two-horse race between the Warriors and Thunder is incredibly exciting.

Long before the Warriors lost in the Finals, there already was speculation that Golden State could become Durantula’s free agency destination if he left the only NBA franchise he has ever played for. Back then, I didn’t like the idea. It seemed too risky. I also thought one of the things that made our team so potent was our depth. But after we crumbled in the Finals, my opinion on the matter has changed. Back then, I wasn’t keen on the possibility of losing some significant contributors off our bench to bring his max contract onboard, but I think the Finals showed us—amongst many things—that the ultimate outcome will likely come down to the strength of each team’s best 7-8 players, not the entire roster. Over a seven-game series, Cleveland’s best three players—LeBron, Kyrie and Tristan Thompson (who I like to call “Fetch” because fetching offensive rebounds is his only elite skill)—simply outplayed Curry, Green and Klay Thompson just enough to win it all.

Unless Miami significantly upgrades their talent in the offseason—like adding Kevin Durant—we all know LeBron, Kyrie and their supporting cast will be back in the Finals because they play in the Eastern Conference. We can expect them to have an easier road to the Finals again. This year, the Cavs played three less games than the Warriors before they met in the Finals. It’s not an excuse, but I think that extra wear was one of many factors in our collapse. So if we can upgrade our starting lineup, our top-tier talent by adding a once-in-a-generation player, I think our chances are significantly improved if we met again in the Finals. Plus, signing Durant would seriously deplete one of our strongest opponents.

So I’m all in on the Durant sweepstakes now. I still think it’s unlikely we’ll add KD, especially after last night’s trade in which Oklahoma City fleeced Orlando to upgrade their shooting guard position, but it shouldn’t stop us from doing our best to sign him.

And so, who would I be willing to part with from our pool of eight restricted and unrestricted free agents? Here’s my list:

Gone: Barnes, Ezeli, McAdoo, Rush, Varejao, Speights

Ever since he rejected a contract extension before the start of last season, I’ve been willing and expecting to let go of Harrison Barnes. And that was before he royally shit the bed in three straight close-out games that didn’t go our way. Because I love being haunted by statistics, let me put down his shooting line for the final three games of the season:

5 of 32 FGA

3 of 15 from three-point land

That’s a 16 FG percentage—thus why Paul Pierce said he had a STD, scared to death, in the Finals.

It’s hard not to take Barnes’s performance in the Finals into account, but ultimately, I just feel like he won’t be worth all the money he will likely command in the market. I don’t think he’s worth $16-20 million per year. After all the opportunities he’s been given to step up, I have a hard time believing he’ll reach his inherent potential. He’s a great guy—as evidenced by his time spent covering local beat writer, Marcus Thompson II—but I think it’s time to move on. His ability to competently defend shooting guards to power forwards is a big key to our team’s versatility, but he’s not the only small forward capable of such defensive flexibility.

And I feel much the same way about Festus: great dude, good teammate, but I just don’t believe he’s going to reach all his potential. Before this season began, I boldly predicted that he would supplant Bogut by the end of the regular season, but boy was I wrong. Festus couldn’t step up when we needed him the most. In Game 7, Kerr gave Anderson Varejao—a player who was cut from the Portland Trailblazers, a team that lacks frontcourt talent—seven long minutes because he couldn’t trust Ezeli. That’s damning. There’s no way of putting it nicely. Ezeli has all the physical tools to succeed but he seems to lack the focus and basketball IQ that separates him from Bogut.

As for our less important free agents, Varejao clearly needs to go. He’s always been a great teammate, but he was such a liability for us on both ends of the court in the painful few minutes he was given in the Finals. I feel awful that he was unable to win a championship during the one season he was traded away from the Cavaliers. Life is full of pain, especially for Brazilians lately.

The one player on my Gone List who I’m a little torn about is our beloved Mo Buckets. He’s been a great addition to our team the past two years. When we’re playing at home, I feel like a three from Speights ranks second behind a Curry three-pointer in terms of plays that make our fans go apeshit. On a night when his shooting is on, he’s the one guy on our bench who can pour in points in a delirious flurry. But he’s a huge liability on defense. And he’s also not a great rebounder, thus why Kerr gave big-man minutes in the Finals to Ezeli and Varejao. If Mo was a dude with a reliable post game, a guy we could dump the ball into in the paint to get us a relatively simple basket (sans all the screens and wildly difficult shot-making), I’d lean toward trying to keep him, but he’s no David Lee. An athletic big man like Portland’s Ed Davis could have been a significant contributor in the Finals against LeBron and Thompson. And we’ve got to retool our roster with the endgame in mind.

McAdoo was our 12^th man all season long. He’s a guy with impressive physical talent, but I don’t think he can put it all together on a higher level in the NBA.

Which brings me to the free agents I hope and think we can realistically keep:

Keep: Barbosa, Clark

Although he’s not a good defender, I think Leandro is a guy who fits well with our team. Off the bench, he’s a player who seamlessly fits in our fluid offensive scheme. Despite his age, he can still attack and finish at the rim and his outside shooting is competent. (He certainly didn’t shrink from the moment in Game 6 when Harrison’s shot was continuing to falter.) In terms of chemistry—from what I’ve read—Barbosa seems like a guy who contributes to our jovial and playful spirit, which is when we’re at our best. I also happen to think the Warriors are a good fit for him. If he returns, he can continue to be a reliable, important contributor off the bench for a team that should be among the few championship contenders. Coupled with the kind weather, excellent culinary scene (I hope I don’t sound like a fucking foodie saying that) and chillax lifestyle in the Bay Area, how can it possibly get better for him?

Which brings us to Ian Clark and Brandon Rush.

Since they’re both above-average outside shooters (Rush shot 41% from downtown during the season; Clark only shot 36%), I reckon we should keep at least one of them. Clark’s the younger guy. He’ll also probably cost us less. And in the playoffs, Kerr turned to Clark more than Rush; Clark averaged nearly 10 minutes per game and shot 49% from the field while Rush averaged 8 minutes and shot 45%. Clark’s usage likely went up because of Curry’s injuries in the first half of the playoffs, but in key moments Kerr turned to him instead of Barbosa, which seems meaningful to me. Plus, I can’t help but think that he still hasn’t reached his ceiling while Rush has. The upside on re-signing Clark is higher.

If the Warriors don’t land Durant, who should we target? I haven’t forced myself to watch the last four and a half minutes of Game 7 in the Finals, but I think our key objective in free agency should be to garner a player adept at scoring in the low post. Curry’s injuries and physical ability were depleted as the Finals grinded on, and I think it had trickle-down effects on our entire offense. In Game 7, we rushed too many shots, especially three-pointers. (We shot a series high 41 3PAs in Game 7.) We didn’t zip the ball around their defense enough like we had all season. Cleveland deserves credit for cleaning up their atrocious, embarrassing defensive play in the first two games of the series, but in the end, I think it was more our lack of offensive discipline because Curry wasn’t bailing us out like he had all season long that undid us. Last year, we had the luxury of having David Lee come off the bench in case we needed some simple, high-percentage buckets down low. We lacked that this year, and I think it was a factor at the end. That’s why, if we whiff on KD, I’d love to go after Pau Gasol or Dirk Nowitski. I think prying Dirk from Dallas is highly unlikely but I think signing Gasol could be a real possibility because he has expressed a willingness to sign for less to play for a championship contender. He wouldn’t have to start, but Gasol could give us 15-20 minutes per game and give our offense a new dimension that can help us when our outside shooting is bricking.

As for small forwards, the big name everyone keeps mentioning as a possible replacement—and even an upgrade over Harrison Barnes—is Charlotte’s Nicolas Batum. I’m not familiar with his style of play but I trust all the hype I’ve been reading about him. Two seasons ago, Bob Myers made a few ingenuous moves by signing veteran free agents like Shaun Livingston, Leandro Barbosa and Marreese Speights who were not highly sought after by other teams. On a similar note, I think Luol Deng could be worth the risk. And I’d be game for a second tour of duty from the seemingly-ageless Matt Barnes—who, like my boy, Draymond Green—is a guy fans from 29 teams hate but love when he’s on their team.

For the power forward spot, Al Horford has been mentioned as a key target along with KD and Dirk. He’s an excellent all-around player but I don’t think he’d help us get high-percentage shots in the paint. But he’s a great teammate and I get excited at the thought of seeing him and Draymond holding down our defense around the rim. His former Florida Gator teammate, Joakim Noah, is a guy I’d like to see us take a chance on no matter what happens with our chase for KD, Dirk or Horford. Coming off his worst season, Noah would come to us at the most cap-friendly contract in his entire career. Steve Kerr evidently thinks highly of his character:

Finally, I think Jared Dudley could be an excellent signing. I’ve listened to a few of his podcast appearances with ESPN’s Zach Lowe. He seems like a personable, intelligent player with high character (i.e. the type of player we’ve sought under Bob Myers’s helm). And did I mention the motherfucker shot 42% from three-point land last season? His 6’7 wingspan isn’t impressive like Green or Livingston’s, but he would be another Warrior player over 6’5 in height with above-average shooting and an unselfish style of play.

What do you Warriors fans think?