Thoughts on the 2015-2016 Western Conference Finals and Oklahoma City Thunder

Sweet baby Jesus, that was one helluva series! Our Game 6 victory is probably the most exhilarating, joyous sports victory I have felt. Last year’s opening round series between the Clippers and Spurs was a hair better, methinks, but this was the best Warriors series I’ve been fortunate to witness. During the past two years, this was the greatest challenge we overcame. I also happen to think it’s the greatest challenge we will face this season. A week ago when the Warriors were down 3-1 after getting shellacked in Oklahoma City, ESPN Radio’s Dan Le Batard offered an interesting take on what exactly the Dubs were up against. He said, when all is said and done in their careers, that Westbrook and Durant would be a better duo than any that Jordan and Pippen took down. It was a ballsy thing to say, but I’m with him. In my mind, the only one of those duos that could compare to the 2015-2016 version of Westbrook and Durant would be Barkley and Kevin Johnson, who were also in their prime when they lost to the Bulls in the 1992-1993 Finals. As it is right now, ESPN ranks Durant 22nd and Westbrook 49^th on their list of greatest players in NBA history. In all likelihood—especially with Westbrook—that ranking will only increase over the years.

But anyway, before I get too scrambled here, I wanted to offer some thoughts on this epic series: 

• When the Warriors went down 3-1, like most other fans and basketball analysts, I thought they were done. Going back to Curry’s MCL sprain in the opening round, then Draymond avoiding a suspension after Game 3 in OKC, I just felt like we had dodged too many bullets and our time had come. The Thunder were imposing their will upon the Warriors more than we were. Even Warriors beat writer Marcus Thompson II said that he felt like the Thunder were more the team of destiny than the Warriors before Game 4 on Zach Lowe’s podcast. Obviously, I’m glad I was wrong. The Warriors became only the 10^th team out of 232 to win a seven-game series after being down 3-1.

• There were several factors that contributed to the Warriors epic comeback, but one of the key differences was Curry’s shot-making. In our last three wins, Curry shot 47% from the field, a scorching 47% from downtown while averaging 32.6 points. In Games 3 and 4 he looked like a mess whenever Adams switched on him past the three-point line. Once we came back home, and then back to OKC for Game 6, Curry looked more confident shooting over OKC’s big men from downtown, or taking them on the dribble on a drive to the basket. That wasn’t happening when we were down. Wardell looked more like himself, basically, like the first unanimous MVP we saw during the regular season. 

• Who would have thought that Dion Waiters would end up being OKC’s X-Factor in the series? Perhaps X-Factor is taking it too far, but he was certainly their bellwether. Just observe his stat lines in their series wins and losses:

         Wins

         Game 1           10 pts, 4 assists on 4 of 6 shooting

         Game 3           13 pts, 3 Reb, 3 Asts on 6 0f 11 shooting

         Game 4           10 pts, 3 REB, 3 ASTs on 3 of 7 shooting

         In their losses, Waiters averaged 3.75 pts with a putrid 21% FG percentage. 

• For what it’s worth—though I’m clearly biased—I thought the league’s handling of Draymond’s kick to Steven Adams in Game 3 was a fair ruling. Stu Jackson would have suspended Green for Game 4—not that it would have ultimately mattered, but before Game 4, while I was checking Twitter and ESPN incessantly for updates on a ruling, I hoped that the league would avoid repeating their call for player suspensions like in the 2007 Spurs vs. Suns series when Amar’e Stoudemire and Boris Diaw were suspended for leaving their bench and stepping onto the court, a call that tilted the series toward the Spurs for a critical Game 5. I agreed with Jalen Rose’s take that Draymond’s kick was an “unusual basketball move,” but it was unclear if Green intended to kick and injure his adversary. 

• The final thing I will say about the series is that I think its outcome nicely validated Larry Bird’s (or was it Pat Riley? Or Phil Jackson? Or Kevin McHale?) theory that a team’s strength can truly be measured and compared not by their two best players, but the strength of their third best player. In this series, it was clear that our two best and most important players were Draymond and Curry, #1 and #2 in +/- rankings during the regular season; conversely, it was clear that OKC’s best two players were KD and Russ. Thompson (a.k.a. Tray Thompson) is without question our third most important player while OKC’s 3^rd best player in this series was…Adams?…or was it Ibaka?…or possibly Waiters? I would say it was Adams. And in the end, our third-best player outplayed OKC’s.

So now that Oklahoma City’s season is over, what must they do to get over the championship hump?

If you ask me, KD’s got to stay at least one more year. Defeating the Spurs—a 67-win team—and pushing a historic 73-9 Warriors to the absolute brink has to validate what Sam Presti, Billy Donovan and super-assistant coach Mo Cheeks have cooking with this roster.

Playing off that assumption, I think OKC’s untradeables are: 

• Durant (their best player)
• Westbrook (duh)
• Adams (duh)

Ibaka’s an excellent player. Like others, I sense he still hasn’t quite reached his potential. Oklahoma City Thunder beat writer Royce Young stated on Zach Lowe’s podcast that Donovan has tried and tried to make Waiters accept a starring role as an elite bench player, but he is still too wild and inconsistent. He has the ability and skills but his mental acumen is lacking. (He’s also only 24; I was a fucking idiot when I was that age.) From the little I’ve seen of him, I think Cameron Payne might develop into the playmaker & steady-handed ball-handler off the bench that they lack behind Westbrook, but he still has a lot to develop.

Beyond Durant and Ibaka, the Thunder still lacks three-pointing shooting in a playoff series. The Warriors had an astounding +84 edge in three-point shooting in this series, the one statistical battle the Thunder sorely lost. Former Warrior Anthony Morrow is an excellent shooter, but that’s his only exceptional talent on the hardwood. As a Dubs fan, it’s now a joy to watch him put the ball on the court since his ball-handling skills have seemingly never improved. Basically, he’s like what Klay Thompson was when he first came into the league—except his defense sucks. He’s not a bad player to have on your roster, but come playoffs, when OKC is facing a mighty team, he’s oftentimes too much of a liability to put on the court. Should be more of a 9^th or 10^th man off the bench instead of a key contributor. I

In this basketball era, OKC needs to improve their outside shooting if they want to get over the championship hump.

I think the Thunder need a veteran playmaking wing—and not someone in the grizzled Derek Fisher age range. If the beastly 22-year-old Adams can develop enough of a post game, say, become a consistent 12 & 12 big man, and if OKC retains Ibaka or someone with his height, length and elite outside shooting, this wing player might be their missing piece. I humbly believe they are that close—and, in all likelihood, the Warriors’ collective talent will be depleted after this offseason.

Another missing piece could be a sprinkle or two of maturity for their two leaders. 

I think KD and Russ still have some growing up to do when compared to a leader like Curry. (I think it’s worth mentioning that Curry is a dad while KD and Russ have not had that life-altering experience.)

After the Warriors Game 5 victory in Oracle, a reporter asked Westbrook if he thought Curry was an underrated defender. Westbrook laughed, and Durant backed him.

Now think of the Spurs, a team with an unquestioned championship pedigree. Do you think any of their top players, like Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green or LaMarcus Aldridge would have ever laughed at their opponent in such an instance? The answer is a resounding “no.”

I am not theorizing that the series tilted in that postgame moment, but Steph Curry in the past two seasons has shown, again and again, that you do not piss him off. He will likely make you pay for it, just like Michael Jordan did. Their demeanor and style of play is completely different, but their level of competitiveness is similar. With one win to go to reach the Finals, KD and Russ should have been aware of that, and guess what, Curry and the Warriors made them pay. You do not give this team fuel to beat you.

Much respect to the Thunder. They’re a class organization. If they keep all their main players and add one or two dynamic role players I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they win it all next year.

But onward to the Finals!