2015-2016 NBA Conference Final predictions

We have arrived to the NBA’s final four. It should be no surprise to see Golden State, Cleveland and Oklahoma City here.

Going into the conference finals, the Warriors remain heavy favorites according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest NBA Predictions:

Eastern Conference Finals

(1) Cleveland vs. (2) Toronto

Without Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto looks like nothing more than an annoying speed bump on Cleveland’s blitzkrieg return to the NBA Finals. Despite their hot shooting toward the end of their seven-game series with Miami, I don’t think Lowry or DeRozan will provide enough firepower to keep up with LeBron, Kyrie, K-Love and their other gunslingers. And I just don't see how Toronto can pull off a win.

Prediction: Cleveland in 4

Western Conference Finals

(1) Golden State vs. (3) Oklahoma City

I’m going to try something new to start off this prediction. I am going to imitate LeBron James and his penchant for backhanded compliments when it comes to a superior opponent, like the Golden State Warriors. (See LeQueen's backhanded compliment of the Warriors' record-setting winning streak to open the 2015-2016 season; see LeQueen's backhanded compliment of Steph Curry's second-straight MVP.)

Here I go:

JUAN:

Cleveland’s been playing some impressive ball. Undefeated in the playoffs. Heading toward a second straight Finals appearance. It would be LeBron’s sixth straight NBA Finals appearance, which is a mighty impressive accomplishment, but we all know that the Thunder pose the biggest threat to Golden State’s second straight title.

Not bad, huh?

Anyway, for the past few months, I have been in complete accord with Warriors beat writer extraordinaire, Tim Kawakami, when he wrote that the Oklahoma City Thunder are the most difficult matchup in a seven-game series against the reigning champions. They just showed us why in their upset victory against the aging Spurs: they’re arguably the most physically talented team in the league; they have two of the top-5 players in the NBA; they have above-average rebounding at every starting position, and when Westbrook’s force-of-nature ferocity is unleashed yet controlled (i.e. when he’s not taking 31 shots per game and jacking up 10 three-point shots like he did in Game 3 against the Spurs despite shooting less than 30% from downtown in the regular season), the Thunder are a tough, tough team to beat. 

The past few weeks, I have mentally pitted my beloved Warriors against potential playoff foes through this exercise: if you could combine the Dubs and their opponent into an ultra-12-man team which executed Golden State’s offensive and defensive schemes, how many oppositional players would you take? That, for me, has been a simple litmus test to size up their potential opponents. 

It goes like this:

First round series (Houston)

• Trevor Ariza
• Patrick Beverly

*Note: James Harden would not make my ultra-12 team. Simply put, he is a cancer to team chemistry. On a team that plays unselfishly like the Warriors, Harden’s lust for ball-hogging would not fly. Nor would his lackluster (if existent) leadership skills.

Second round series (Portland)

• Damian Lillard
• C.J. McCollum
• Ed Davis
• Al-Farouq Aminu

San Antonio Spurs

• Kawhi Leonard (duh)
• LaMarcus Aldridge (duh)
• Danny Green (solid back-up shooting guard if you need stellar wing defense and an outside shooter)
• Manu Ginoboli (11^th or 12^th man)
• Tony Parker (11^th or 12^th man; back-up to Livingston)

For the Thunder, I would take:

• Kevin Durant (duh)
• Russell Westbrook (duh)
• Steven Adams (the X-factor in their last series due to his defense on Aldridge)
• Enes Kanter (that motherfucker is just too smooth in the offensive game, and he’s a certifiable glass wiper on the boards)
• Serge Ibaka (if he were on the Warriors, he would be like a shot-blocking, ridiculously efficient shooting version of Mo Buckets)

Oklahoma City’s length and athleticism will give us problems. Although we were 3-0 in the regular season against them, the Thunder were tied or led in the fourth quarter in all three games against us this season. They should have beaten us at least once.

I can’t wait to see the chess match in this series. Our Death Line-up versus their double-headed behemoth of Adams and Kanter on the boards. Durant vs. the posse of defenders we throw at him. Westbrook vs. Curry. The Down-Under Titans: Adams vs. Bogut. Draymond vs. the Thunder. Draymond vs. the World. If their regular season matchups were an accurate prelude, this should be an exhilarating series to watch. Probably the NBA’s dream playoff matchup.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see OKC win one in Roaracle. But, conversely, I would be shocked if the Warriors—who notched an NBA record 34 victories on the road in the regular season—don’t win at least one in Oklahoma City.

Like Tim Kawakami, I’m picking the Warriors in 6.